随着系统复杂化和全球化的趋势，安全关键系统级联失效，已经上升为最严重的国家安全挑战之一。而级联失效的多样性、动态性、持续性、突发性的特点，使得对其的分析成为当今研究的热点和难点。.本项目从可靠性、安全性两个层面，建立安全关键系统级联失效的机理、性能与优化的分析方法。①突破传统级联失效的研究针对单一故障、特定性能以及安全关键系统的研究缺少动态级联分析的局限，深入准确地揭示级联失效机理，建立基于安全性和可靠性的级联失效分析模型；②开创性地建立分层化的性能分析体系，建立级联失效的可靠性、安全性分析方法，丰富安全性理论体系，拓展级联失效的研究成果；③建立基于全过程、多性能指标的级联失效抵制与优化分析策略，给出综合性能最优的系统性能提升方法。.预期成果对于深入揭示安全关键系统级联失效机理、精确分析系统性能、有效给出优化策略、全面提升安全性能、保障国民关键系统安全稳定运行具有重要的科学意义和应用价值。

With the trend of system complexity and globalization, cascading failures of safety-critical systems have risen to become one of the most serious national security challenges. The characteristics of the cascading failure, such as diversity, dynamic, sustainability and suddenness, make the analysis became hot and difficult in current research..This project will establish the analysis methods for the cascading failure mechanism, performance and optimization of safety-critical systems from two aspects of reliability and safety. The expected results are as follows: ①Breaking through the limitations of traditional cascading failure research on single fault type, specific performance and lack of dynamic cascade analysis for security-critical systems, revealing the cascading failure mechanism thoroughly and accurately, and establishing the cascading failure analysis model based on safety and reliability; ②Creatively establishing a hierarchical performance analysis system, and providing a series of analysis methods for cascading failure based on reliability and safety, which will enrich the safety theory and expand the research results of cascading failure; ③Establishing the cascading failure rejection and optimization analysis strategies based on the whole process and multi-performance indexes and giving the method for the system performance improvement with optimal comprehensive performance..The expected results have important scientific significance and application value for deeply revealing the cascading failure mechanism of safety-critical systems, accurately analyzing the system performance, effectively giving optimization strategies, comprehensively improving the system safety performance and ensuring the safe and stable operation of national safety-critical systems.