大学与地区经济增长：基于新建校区的准实验研究

随着知识经济的兴起和全球经济竞争的日益激烈，世界各国越来越重视大学在经济增长中扮演的角色，以美国硅谷和128公路为代表的大学和产业协同创新发展模式成为了各国政策制定者梦寐以求的目标。但是高等教育的扩张并不必然带来经济增长，在实践中往往是发展优势明显的地区更有实力吸引到优质的高校落户当地。因此传统的实证分析很可能高估了大学对地区经济增长的影响。本课题利用中国1999年高校扩招后大学为解决老校区办学条件不足而在其所在地的邻近区县新建校区这一自然实验来构造对照组，使用双重差分、事件研究和空间断点回归等前沿的因果推断方法来研究新建校区对地方劳动力市场的人力资本、企业形成和效益、需求拉动和地区创新体系建立的影响，并最终探索这些要素形成对地区经济增长的影响机制。这一研究对于探讨大学在推动中国经济从要素投入驱动向创新驱动增长方式转变中的作用和其他发展中国家如何开展产教融合和校企合作具有重要的指导意义。

Since the rise of the knowledge economy and as the global economic competition intensifies, countries around the world has increasingly placed high emphasis on the role of universities in driving economic growth. The US models of Silicon Valley and Route 128 have been touted as the dream model. But the expansion of higher education will not necessarily bring economic growth. In practice, the better endowed regions are more likely to attract more prestigious universities to set up sub-campuses which means traditional analyses end up overestimating the effects of universities on growth. This research proposal utilizes the natural experiment of constructing the new campuses by universities in nearby towns to accommodate the rapid increase in number of enrolled students caused by the arguably exogenous expansion of higher education since 1999 in China to pinpoint the causal effects (or the lack of it) of new universities on local economic growth. A rather comprehensive collation of census, surveys, administrative data as well as online open access data allows us to capture the mechanisms behind this effect including the human capital accumulation, local innovation systems, and demand side factors. This research will not only shed lights on the role of universities in China’s transition from a factor-driven economy to innovation-driven economy but also prove insightful for developing countries that aim to jump-start its economy by strengthening university-industry linkages.