我国近海台风快速增强过程的能量学机理研究

台风强度预报尤其是在近海强度迅速变化的物理机制是台风发生发展机理中非常重要的内容，而目前强度变化机理和预报的研究和预报技术仍然滞后。改进台风强度预报的重要一环是对台风强度变化的主要物理过程的深入理解。本项目将通过理论分析和数值模拟来定量研究我国近海台风快速增强过程的物理机理。建立能量收支为理论核心和柱坐标下轴对称非对称分解为技术核心的研究物理基础。利用高分辨中尺度数值模拟资料计算我国近海台风快速增强过程有关的轴对称与非对称旋转以及辐散环流动能和有效位能收支，分析正压、斜压、辐射和感热潜热在近海台风快速增强过程中所扮演的角色及其台风快速增强过程中动力和热力结构。为改进我国近海台风快速增强预报提供科学理论依据。

The forecast of typhoon intensity, in particular, physical mechanism of the intensity change nearshore, is an important aspect of mechanism of formation and development of typhoon, but the study of mechanism and forecast of the intensity change and forecast skill are severe lagging. One of the important steps towards improving the forecast of typhoon intensity is to enhance understanding of controlling physical processes that are responsible for changes in typhoon intensity. The proposed study is to quantitatively study the physical mechanism associated with the rapid intensification of typhoons off the coast of China. The physical base with the theoretical core of energetics budget and the technical core of symmetric and asymmetric separation in cylindrical coordinate is established. Cloud-resolving numerical modeling data are used to calculate budgets of symmetric and asymmetric rotational and divergent kinetic energy and available potential energy and to analyze the roles of barotropic, baroclinic, radiative as well as sensible and latent heat processes and dynamic and thermodynamic structures during the rapid intensification of typhoons. The proposed study lays down foundation for the improvement of forecast of rapid intensification of typhoons off the coast of China.