强降水系统发展和辐射及云微物理过程紧密相关。理解这些物理过程对降水预报的改进有重要意义，对提高政府对强降水可能造成的洪涝灾害应对决策能力有重要影响。本项目采用数值模拟手段和定量分析方法研究我国强降水系统对辐射和冰云的响应。首先，从我国典型强降水系统模拟入手，用最新的实验结果改进现有的冰云冻结增长参数化方案，把冰云改进方案应用于本项目研究的模式中。然后，进行降水对辐射和冰云响应的敏感性数值模拟和雨强及最大降水过程的定量分析,揭示决定辐射和冰云对雨强和最大降水变化影响的物理过程。定量分析包括地面降水、云微物理、水汽和热量分析。本项目研究为提高强降水数值预报能力提供扎实的基础。

The development of torrential rainfall systems is intimately associated with radiative and cloud microphysical processes. The understanding of these physical processes is crucially important for the improvement of rainfall forecast as well as governmental decision making for preparation of floods caused by torrential rainfall. In this proposed study, numerical simulations and quantitative analysis are carried out to examine torrential rainfall responses to radiation and ice clouds. First, new laboratory results are used to improve parameterization scheme of depositional growth of ice crystal in moldeing of torrential rainfall events in China. Improved scheme will be used in this study. The sensitivity numerical experiments of torrential rainfall responses to radiation and ice clouds and quantitative analysis of rainfall intensity and maximum rainfall are then conducted to study the responsible physical processes. Quantitative analysis includes the analysis of surface rainfall, cloud microphysical, water vapor and heat budgets. The proposed study will lay down a solid foundation for the improvement of torrential rainfall forecast.