项目以关乎国家金融安全与经济稳定的应用需求为导向，致力于攻关风险管理领域核心技术难题——不确定性问题，以国际前沿研究中关键性技术突破为目的，通过跨学科合作，推动现有概率统计方法的提升、推进新型方法的创新，从而助益于概率统计理论发展，并切实提升理论应用价值——助力于解决长期困扰金融领域的审慎风险管理问题。项目总思路：改进现有方法与创建新型方法并行展开。其基础性工作：厘定不确定性问题的范畴及边界，明晰不确定性的引致因子、量化分析方法及其在经济金融场景下的特殊性；并通过经济金融数据规律与结构分析，明确不确定性的概率和统计体现；创立解决不确定性问题有效程度的检验标准。由此，就现有处理该问题相对有效的方法——非线性期望理论，以有效性检验为依据，基于长期研究中所总结的一系列改进切入点，实施优化与提升。同时，通过提炼解决不确定性问题的关键性技术逻辑及其概率统计表达，探索概率统计新方法的创建。

Guided by the application requirements related to China's financial and economic stability and with the joint effort of researchers in probability theory, finance, statistics and information technology, the project is committed to contributing to the cutting edge research on uncertainty which is the daunting task in prudential risk management. And the purpose of the project is to promote the improvement of existing probability model, specifically nonlinear expectation theory(G-expectation theory), and propose new models and theories. .. With comprehensively defining uncertainty and theoretically verifying the key factors that drive changes in uncertainty, empirical analysis is conducted to explore the statistical characteristics of uncertainty and mechanism/patterns of its changes. The project will also establish a test criterion for the validity of different models dealing with uncertainty. Then, G-expectation theory will be tested and accordingly adapted also guided by the insights gained from our former research work. Moreover, new probability models and theories will be suggested or developed for better measuring of uncertainty. The new models will not only based on rigorous theoretical deduction and will tested through a mass simulations facilitated by powerful computer hardware and softwares.