当股市涨跌幅超过一定阈值时，市场会产生极值风险，表现为股价暴涨暴跌，且股市极值风险的发生将会刺激新的极值风险发生，这种自激发传播特性会导致股市极值风险持续传播，进而带来巨大影响。在关注股市极值风险传播特征的同时，其背后市场微观机理研究也同样重要。本项目以中国股市为研究对象，视涨跌幅超过一定阈值的暴涨/暴跌为股市极值风险，将股市极值风险传播过程类比于由主震激发的一系列余震的传播过程，利用具有双重散粒噪声特征的标值Hawkes过程，构建股市极值风险传播模型，刻画股市极值风险传播的动态过程，从多重视角（余震传播持续时间、余震活跃程度、余震强度、余震情景概率预测）开展特定市态(牛市/熊市/平衡市)下极值风险（暴涨/暴跌）传播特征以及数值实现技术的研究，引入Ising计算实验金融模型，探究市场微观机理对股票市场极值风险传播的影响。本项目对提高股票市场极值风险管理水平具有重要的理论价值和现实意义。

When the range of the stock market fluctuation exceeds a certain threshold, the market may form extreme risk, which performs as the drastic volatility in stock prices. Moreover, the extreme risk in stock market will stimulate the occurrence of new extreme risks. The extreme risk in stock market possesses the self-exciting spreading characteristic, which may cause its continuous spreading and thus greatly influences the stock market. When focusing on the spreading characteristics of the extreme risk in stock market, a study on the microstructure of the market is of the same significance. Based on the Chinese stock market, this project defines the extreme risk in stock market as the range of fluctuation exceeding a certain threshold. Next, the spreading dynamic process of the extreme risk in stock market is seen as the spreading dynamic process of a series of aftershocks triggered by the principal earthquake. A marked Hawkes process with twofold shot noise characteristics is introduced to construct the spreading model of the extreme risk in stock market and depict the spreading dynamic process of the extreme risk in stock market. Then, a study is carried out to analyze the spreading characteristics of the extreme risk (drastic rising/ drastic falling) under a specific market state (bull/ bear/ volatile) and its corresponding numerical techniques from several aspects (the duration of the aftershocks, the frequency of the aftershocks, the severity of the aftershocks, the scenario prediction of the aftershocks). Finally, Ising agent-based computational finance model is utilized to study the spreading influences of the extreme risk in stock market caused by the microstructure of the market. This project possesses both important theoretical value and practical meaning when improving the management of the extreme risk in stock market.