近年，交通运输已成为我国能耗与碳排放增长最快的部门之一。由于其在国民经济中的基础地位，需要将低碳交通纳入区域低碳发展综合评价框架下予以考察。本项目系统辨识区域低碳发展的影响要素及作用机制，设计综合评价指标体系；引入变权理论与方法，与多属性决策方法相融合，并考虑不同类型区域低碳发展的特点，构建我国省域低碳发展变权动态综合评价模型；利用该模型，考察省域低碳交通发展环境，诊断各省区低碳发展问题，提出优化路径与改进对策。本项目的学术贡献体现在三个方面：1）将压力-状态-响应模型引入区域低碳发展评价研究，为指标体系的设计提供了新的方法支撑；2）构建了区域低碳发展的变权评价模型，相比现有研究，强化了对低碳发展要素间均衡协调性的考察，并能体现低碳发展的时空差异；3）提出基于变权评价的低碳交通发展环境分析与低碳发展问题诊断、优化方法，应用于对低碳交通试点省区的考察，为各地低碳交通规划提供了新的分析工具。

In recent years, transportation has become one of fastest growth industries for energy consumption and carbon emission in China. Because the transportation plays a basic role in the national economy, low-carbon transport planning should be introduced into regional low-carbon development comprehensive evaluation frame to explore. This project designs a comprehensive evaluation index system based on identifying systematically influencing factors of regional low-carbon development and their action mechanism. Then, variable weights theory and method is introduced into the study and incorporated with methods of multi-criteria decision making (MCDM), allowing a dynamic comprehensive evaluation model of provincial low-carbon development in China based on variable weights built, which is able to reflect low-carbon development features and demands of different types of regions. By using the hybrid model, this project explores the development environment of provincial low-carbon transport, diagnoses problems of provinces in low-carbon development, and proposes corresponding optimized paths and countermeasures. The potential academic contributions of this project can be summarized as: 1) We introduce press-state-response(PSR) model into the study on the regional low-carbon development evaluation, which will provide new methodological support for designing evaluation index system. 2) This project establishes a comprehensive evaluation model of regional low-carbon development based on variable weights. Compared with existing evaluation models based on constant weights, the proposed model strengthens examining the balance and coordination among the low-carbon development elements, and embodies the temporal and spatial differences on the low-carbon development. 3) We put forward a low-carbon transport development environment analysis method, and a diagnostic and optimum method for provincial low-carbon development in China based on comprehensive evaluation, which are applied to the case study on the low-carbon transport experiment provinces, thus providing a new analysis tool for the local low-carbon transport planning.