登革热、基孔肯雅热、寨卡等蚊媒传染病，是通过蚊子传播的全球性重大传染性疾病。近年来在我国引起重大疫情，严重危害人民的生命和健康。随着我国经济的发展和国际交流的增加，我国蚊媒传染病存在新发和再发的双重风险和负担，且形势日趋严峻（如2014年登革热在广东省的大爆发）。目前蚊媒传染病面临传染源上病原体变异进化以及病毒交叉感染等主要问题，如何利用数学模型来研究这些因素对蚊媒传染病流行与控制的影响是一项有意义的全新研究课题。本项目将以蚊媒传染病中基孔肯雅热和登革热为例，建立病毒演化变异和两种病毒竞争共存的蚊媒传染病动力学模型。结合数学建模、数据收集、统计分析和数值仿真等方法，研究模型的动力学行为，分析这些因素与高峰到达时间、高峰规模的内在关系，找出影响蚊媒传染病流行的关键因素，寻求最优的干预控制。研究成果将为我国蚊媒传染病的防控决策提供科学的理论和数量依据。

Mosquito-borne diseases (MBDs), such dengue fever, chikungunya fever, and Zika, are major and global infectious diseases transmitted by mosquitoes. Recently these MBDs have caused major outbreaks in many countries (including China) worldwide, which have threatened many people’s lives and health. With the development of economics and increase of international communication and travel, China is facing.mutiple risks of emerging and reemerging as well as importation and local outbreak of these MBDs (for instance the large outbreak of dengue fever in Guangdong in 2014). The current issues in studying MBDs include mutation and evolution of viruses, cross infections among viruses, etc. It is a significant and new topic in studying the effects of these factors on the transmission of MBDs and the control of mosquitoes by using mathematical models. In this proposal, using chikungunya fever and dengue fever as examples, we will develop MBDs transmission models involving virus mutation, introduced cases, climate change as well as viruses competition. By mathematical modeling, data collecting, statistical analysis and computational simulations, we will study the dynamical behavior of these models, analyze the factors and their relations on disease peak time and size, timing and effectiveness of control measures, and search for key factors and optimal strategies to prevent and control these MBDs. These research results will provide scientific theory and quantity basis for the prevention and control decision of these MBDs.