土地财政转型视角下城市蔓延响应特征及治理策略研究

城市蔓延成为长期困扰我国与西方发展的共性问题，引发了耕地流失、扩展无序、用地低效、交通拥挤、生态退化等诸多效应。对蔓延的机理解释，往往忽视土地财政这一政府与市场复合体的显著影响。我国正进入土地财政转型阶段，而财税改革、长效机制尚未真正落地，将长期面临追逐土地财政和开展蔓延治理的深刻矛盾。目前对土地财政转型还停留在政策探讨阶段，亟须厘清转型背景下政府与市场围绕土地财政形成的动态博弈及城市蔓延响应这一核心问题。为此，本项目拟从土地财政视角阐明城市蔓延的内在机理，进而探索转型背景下的蔓延治理策略。首先，分析土地资本的积累、循环和转移，剖析土地财政转型特征及路径；其次，根据土地财政转型阶段，厘清政府与市场主体围绕土地财政形成的博弈关系和利益交互，刻画城市蔓延多态并存的响应特征，并通过政策模拟和情景仿真揭示其作用机理；最后，探讨土地财政转型对蔓延治理的影响，提出定序、定位、定类治理蔓延的差别化策略。

Urban sprawl is a key issue confronted by both China and the West. It results in a series of problems, such as farmland loss, disorder urban expansion, traffic congestion, and ecological degradation. The cause of urban sprawl is often regarded as either market failure or government failure, rather than the conflict of interest around land finance. Now, China is stepping into the period to reduce the heavy reliance on land finance. But local governments in many Chinese cities did not establish effective debt or credit financing system. They will have to face the conflict of pursuing land finance and curbing urban sprawl in the long run. However, the study on land finance reform mainly focuses the macro policies from the national level instead of local scales. We need to know more about the dynamic gaming between different actors around the slicing of land finance and its potential effects on urban sprawl. To fill the gap, we attempts to disclose why sprawl occurred in China and what roles land finance played. And then we anticipate to explore the measures of curbing urban sprawl by considering the key factor of land finance reform. First, we will conduct a detailed analysis on the formation, accumulation and transferring of land-based capital, in order to disclose the characteristics and paths of land finance reform. Second, according to the stages of land finance reform, we will analyze the game rules and interest conflicts of different stakeholders around the slice of land finance, such as the government agents and market actors. Accordingly, the pattern of urban sprawl will be modelled and analyzed, based on scenarios simulation under different land finance strategies. Third, from the perspective of land finance reform, the strategies of curbing urban sprawl will be put forward from the multiple perspectives, such as timing, locations, and categories.