全球病毒性肝炎战略2030目标在我国的达标策略与路径研究

全球病毒性肝炎战略要求到2030年新发慢性乙肝和丙肝减少90%，死亡率降至65%。我国病毒性肝炎流行率虽已显著降低，但疾病负担依然沉重。为实现2030目标，探索适合我国国情的乙肝和丙肝管理策略与路径是亟待解决的疾病管理课题。本项目拟以此为核心，根据乙肝和丙肝的传播特征构建基于中国宏观维度的人群SEICR传染病动力学模型，桥接基于决策树与Markov等概率随机过程的乙肝和丙肝微观维度的疾病治疗评价模型，结合我国乙肝和丙肝的流行病学及卫生资源利用等多种数据，首先测算在当前流行形式与疾病管理策略下我国乙肝和丙肝的疾病负担及2030年达标的可行性并分析关键驱动因素，进而明晰中国未来乙肝和丙肝管理的重点策略与路径，随后通过卫生技术评估方法，在2030目标下利用上述模型筛选各类乙肝和丙肝筛查、预防与治疗方案中经济可行及疾病负担最小化的策略与路径，为我国病毒性肝炎2030年达标提供循证决策证据。

The Global Health Sector Strategy (GHSS) proposes to eliminate viral hepatitis as a public health threat by 2030 (elimination is defined as a 90% reduction in new chronic infections and a 65% reduction in mortality). Although the prevalence rate of viral hepatitis in China has decreased significantly, the burden of disease is still high. In order to achieve the 2030 target of viral hepatitis, it is one of the urgent issues in disease management to explore the management strategies and paths of hepatitis B and C that are suitable for the current situation of China. By integrating the epidemiological and health resources utilization data of hepatitis B and hepatitis C in China, a population SEICR epidemic dynamics model based on Chinese macro-dimension and disease treatment evaluation model based on the probability random process such as decision tree and Markov would be constructed according to the transmission characteristics of hepatitis B and hepatitis C, which would be bridged. First of all, we calculate the burden of hepatitis B and hepatitis C in China and the feasibility of meeting the targets in 2030 under the current epidemic situation and disease management strategy, and analyze the key driving factors, and then make clear the key strategies and paths of the management of hepatitis B and C in the future in China. Then through the method of health technology assessment, the above models would be used to find economical and feasible strategies and paths of the screening, preventing and treating hepatitis B and C that would minimize the disease burden under the target of 2030. The results of this project would provide the evidence for achieving the 2030 target of viral hepatitis that is needed by Chinese decision-makers.