基于随机鲁棒优化的建筑能源系统节能改造规划研究

建筑节能改造规划是节能减排工作的重要组成部分。本项目围绕建筑节能改造中的不确定问题，开展以下研究：1）建筑节能改造规划中系统参数不确定和用户行为不确定的分析，建立带有参数不确定性的节能改造规划决策模型，并开展基于随机鲁棒优化的含参数不确定的节能改造规划研究；2）考虑节能改造与被改造建筑用户之间的相互作用，正确评价用户因实施节能改造而改变行为模式所导致的反弹效应的影响，开展基于随机鲁棒优化的含用户行为不确定的节能改造规划研究；3）对建筑能源系统运行中必然存在的设施损毁和性能衰减现象进行建模，考察其中的不确定因素，结合随机鲁棒优化和最优控制思想，开展基于动态系统性能优化的含不确定的节能维修规划研究；4）仿真研究，通过计算机仿真平台进行节能改造和维修方案的分析，验证理论研究的有效性。本项目的研究成果为不确定条件下建筑能源系统节能改造决策提供理论指导与技术支持，推动复杂系统优化理论的发展和应用。

Building energy retrofitting is an important part of the energy efficiency activities. This study focuses on addressing the uncertainties in building energy retrofitting by exploring the following topics: 1) With the analysis on the system parameter and user behavior uncertainties, the retrofitting planning decision making model under uncertainties can be established, and the corresponding stochastic robust optimization methodology will be studied; 2) Taking account of the interplay between retrofitting and user behavior, the impact from the rebound effect can be modelled and incorporated into the retrofitting planning, based on which the stochastic robust optimization of retrofitting planning under rebound effect will be studied; 3) The equipment failure and performance deterioration after retrofitting will be investigated and modelled as a dynamic system under uncertainties, based on which the energy maintenance planning will be studied, and a stochastic robust optimization based optimal control approach will be developed for the maintenance planning; 4) Taking advantage of the building energy system simulation, the preceding theoretical analysis will be tested to verify the effectiveness of the studies. The main finding of this project supports the decision making of building energy retrofitting planning under uncertainties. It also facilitates the development and application of the complex system optimization theory.