高可靠嵌入式系统电源功率模块劣化过程的非线性时变行为研究

高可靠嵌入式系统广泛应用于航天、核电、高铁等关系国家战略与安全的领域中，其电源的可靠性直接影响系统的安全性，并成为电子信息和能源学科的研究热点。在影响电源可靠性的关键因素中，功率模块劣化占据主导地位，如何在运行中动态获取功率模块的劣化状态、预测剩余使用寿命已成为研究的焦点。因此，本研究拟建立功率模块劣化过程的非线性时变行为模型，基于时变状态方程解不稳定性的泛函理论探讨劣化动态演变过程，改传统劣化分析的结构性、统计性建模方式为行为性、解析性建模方式；提出基于Volterra级数的非侵入式功率模块劣化状态在线获取方法，以驱动信号为非侵入式激励，用Volterra级数频域核抽取劣化特征，变劣化状态在线不可测为可测；在此基础上，提出功率模块剩余使用寿命的动态预测算法，改传统离线统计分析为在线预测。为高可靠嵌入式系统电源健康状态预测与智能管理奠定理论基础，为提高其可靠性、可维护性提供新思路和新方法。

The highly reliable embedded systems have been widely applied in the fields of aerospace, nuclear power,high-speed rail, etc., which are related to national strategy and security. The reliability of the power supply directly influences the security of the embedded system, and has been the research focus of electronic information and energy. The power modules degradation occupies a dominant position among the key factors affecting the power supply reliability. It is critical how to dynamically get the degradation state and forecast the remaining useful life of the working power modules.Therefore, the project tries to build nonlinear time-varying behavior model of degradation process of power modules, analyze dynamic degradation evolutionary process based on functional theory of the time-varying state equation solution instability, which changes structural and statistical modeling of traditional degradation analysis into behavioral and analytical modeling. An online obtaining method of non-intrusive power module degradation state is proposed based on Volterra series. It uses self-driving signal as non-intrusive incentive, and extracts degradation characters of power modules by frequency-domain kernel of Volterra series, which changes the nonmeasurable into the measurable online. As a result, the dynamic prediction algorithm of remaining useful life of the power modules is put forward,which changes traditionally offline statistical analysis into online dynamic prediction. These present theoretical foundations for prediction and intelligent management of power health state of highly reliable embedded system, provide new ideas and ways for improving power system reliability and maintainability.