基于生态格局与水文过程的流域水资源和粮食互馈效应调控研究

水资源与粮食安全已成为目前国际社会关注的焦点问题之一。本项目从流域层面，构建流域生态格局与水文过程耦合生态水文模型，利用该模型核算出流域的蓝水和绿水，对流域水资源进行全局评估。通过耗水平衡分析，剖析流域用水户的耗水情况，设置耗水总量调控目标，并提出相应的调控措施和方案。为了更加精细的刻画流域内农作物与水资源的互馈关系，本项目从灌区层面上对农作物耗水过程进行调控，充分考虑植被物候过程和生理过程，构建农作物生产模型，利用该模型对作物耗水规律进行分析。最后，根据流域水资源全局评估结果，结合流域农作物及其产量分布，分析水资源与粮食格局，提出与流域水汽模式相适应的农业格局以及粮食生产策略，利用构建的作物生长模型，基于规划，模拟水资源格局下的粮食产量，并构建流域水资源协调度评价体系，评估流域水资源与粮食协调度演变特性以及对规划的响应程度。本项目的实施可为区域水资源高效利用与管理提供有效的技术支持。

Water resources and crops security have become one of the focuses of the international community. In terms of basin, this project adopted the improved Soil and Water Assessment Model (SWAT) and the Penman-Monteith equation to simulate the daily evapotranspiration, employed the ensemble Calman filter assimilation algorithm for data assimilation，and thus constructed the ecological hydrological coupling model based on the basin ecological pattern and hydrological process. The model was used to calculate the basin blue water and green water, and evaluate the basin water resources globally. Through the analysis of the basin water consumption balance, this project dissected the water consumption of water users in the river basin, set the target of controlling the total water consumption, and put forward the corresponding control measures and solutions. In order to describe the interaction between crops and basin water resources more finely, the project controlled the water consumption of crops in terms of the irrigation area, took full account of vegetation phenology and physiological processes, and constructed the crops production model. Based on the SWAT hydrological model, the evapotranspiration data assimilation system simulated the water balance factors of each hydrological response unit. The water balance factors served as the boundary of the crops production model, which effectively defuses the main restricting factors of the crops model applying from point to surface. The crops production model was used to analyze the water consumption law. At last, based on the global evaluation result of the basin water resources, combined with crops and its yield distribution, this project analyzed the basin water resources and the crops pattern, and put forward the agricultural pattern and crop production strategy which accord with the basin water vapor pattern. Based on the constructed crop growth model, this project simulated the grain yield and water-saving potential under the water resources pattern, constructed the evaluation system of basin water resources coordination degree, and evaluated the evolution characteristics of coordination degree and the response degree to the planning of basin water resources and crops. The implementation of this project can provide effective technical support for the efficient utilization and management of regional water resources.