基于不确定性度量的热带气旋风灾概率性风险评估方法研究
结题报告
批准号:
42007420
项目类别:
青年科学基金项目
资助金额:
24.0 万元
负责人:
栗健
依托单位:
学科分类:
区域环境质量与安全
结题年份:
2023
批准年份:
2020
项目状态:
已结题
项目参与者:
栗健
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中文摘要
风险及其不确定性结果是有效决策的基础,在利用风险评估结果进行决策时,不仅需要一个期望损失值,或者特定超越概率下的损失值,而是需客观考虑风险评估的可靠程度,只有考虑到相关的不确定性时,才能做出最优的决策。目前风险评估研究对不确定性考虑不足,缺少风险评估结果不确定性量化及传递过程分析的理论与方法。本项目拟构建基于不确定性度量的热带气旋风灾概率性风险评估理论框架,对致灾因子危险性评估及承灾体脆弱性评估及风险评估过程中的不确定性进行分类与量化,提出概率性风险评估理论模型;构建结合数学解析及蒙特卡罗模拟方法的风险评估过程不确定性量化及传递过程分析方法;以广东省砖木结构农村住房热带气旋风灾概率性风险评估为例,进行案例评估,对方法的有效性及实用性进行实证研究。热带气旋风灾概率性风险评估方法,是对当前风险评估方法的发展与深化,也是对自然灾害风险评估理论及方法上的创新性探索,评估结果有助于灾害风险管理决策。
英文摘要
Risk and its uncertainty are the basis of effective decision-making. When making decisions with the results of risk assessment, not only expected loss, or loss under a specific probability of exceedance, but also the reliability of risk assessment should be considered. An optimal decision can be made, only when the relevant uncertainties are considered. At present, the research of risk assessment insufficiently considers uncertainty, and lacks the theory and method of uncertainty quantification and transmission process analysis. This project plans to build a theoretical framework probabilistic risk assessment for tropical cyclone wind disaster based on uncertainty quantification. Probabilistic risk assessment model is proposed based on the classification and quantification of uncertainty in hazard, vulnerability, and risk assessment. A method combines analytical and Monte Carlo simulation method is built to quantify the uncertainty and analyze its transmission process. Taking the probabilistic risk assessment of tropical cyclone wind disaster for wood light frames rural residential buildings in Guangdong Province as an example, case assessment is carried out to evaluate the effectiveness and practicability of the method. The proposed probabilistic risk assessment method of tropical cyclone is not only the development of the current risk assessment method, but also the innovative exploration of the theory and method of natural disaster risk assessment. The results are useful for the decision-making of disaster risk management.
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DOI:10.1016/j.ijdrr.2021.102704
发表时间:2021-12
期刊:International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction
影响因子:5
作者:Ke Wang;Yongsheng Yang;G. Reniers;Jian Li;Quanyi Huang
通讯作者:Ke Wang;Yongsheng Yang;G. Reniers;Jian Li;Quanyi Huang
DOI:10.16511/j.cnki.qhdxxb.2023.22.022
发表时间:2023
期刊:清华大学学报. 自然科学版
影响因子:--
作者:叶妍婷;龚俊强;张海霞;栗健
通讯作者:栗健
国内基金
海外基金