粤港澳大湾区土地生态系统服务权衡的时空分异与优化研究

土地生态系统服务权衡与优化是区域协调发展的重要议题，也是生态系统服务研究领域的前沿问题。目前，人们对土地生态系统服务权衡的尺度依存性和区域分异认知不足，继而在权衡形成机制的认识上存在盲点甚至误区，导致相关研究成果对土地利用规划和生态系统管理实践的指导作用受到较大限制。本项目以经济发达的粤港澳大湾区为研究区域，基于InVEST模型、尺度方差和情景模拟等方法，开展土地生态系统服务权衡优化研究，主要内容：生态系统服务动态演变与机理分析，服务权衡时空分异及尺度依存特性剖析，服务权衡形成机理解析与情景模拟。项目在生态系统服务权衡尺度依存性和多种服务之间权衡关系量化的创新性研究成果有望拓展生态系统服务领域的理论与方法；土地生态系统服务评估、权衡量化表达与动态演化机理、区域协调发展的土地利用模式以及多尺度下生态系统服务优化系列途径等集成研究成果，有望为区域协调发展提供研究支撑。

Trade-offs and optimization among land ecosystem services in rapid urbanizing regions have been significant themes for regional development and ecological protection, they are also cores of researches in ecosystem service. Currently, there is uncertainty on scale dependence and regional differences of trade-offs among land ecosystem services, this uncertanty could result in existence of blind spots and misunderstandings in understanding its formation mechanism. Hence the research on trade-offs and optimization among land ecosystem services in rapid urbanizing regions limit its functionality as guidance of land-use plans and/or ecosystem management is limited. Taking Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area as a case, this project uses InVEST, production-possibility frontiers and scale variance models to analyze trade-offs based on scenario analysis in order to support layout optimization of land use and ecosystem. It tries to clarify landscape dynamics and driving mechanism of land ecosystem services in the context of climate change and human activities, explores scale dependence and regional difference of trade-offs, reveals its formation mechanism and develops optimizing measures. Breakthroughs on scale dependence and/or measures of calculating trade-offs are going to enrich the fields of ecosystem services. Research results on key scientific issues including assessing ecosystem services, revealing relationships among trade-offs among land ecosystem services and its mechanism, will set foundation for regional development.