市场整合视角下GVC网络结构与区域出口韧性：理论及中国经验

2008年金融危机后，为何中国GVC嵌入程度较高的沿海地区出口能迅速走出危机的“阴霾”，而其他地区却恢复迟缓甚至深陷危机“泥沼”？本项目拟从市场整合这一视角考察区域GVC网络结构如何影响区域出口韧性。理论上，综合社会网络理论、GVC理论及演化经济地理理论，根据区域GVC网络结构（网络中心度、联系强度及异质性）的“社会性”及其上下游市场技术、资源与信息整合机制，构建区域GVC网络结构影响区域出口韧性的理论框架。经验上，通过2008-2014年省级-行业-时间面板数据进行分析：①评估区域GVC网络结构对短期区域出口韧性的因果效应；②从冲击期和恢复期两阶段比较区域GVC网络结构影响区域出口韧性来源（结构效应或竞争效应）的差异；③探讨长期演化下区域GVC网络结构如何主导区域出口韧性的三维能力（出口抵抗力、恢复力及升级调整力）。本项目将为中国GVC网络结构扩张及出口韧性增强提供政策思考与决策依据。

Why did China's exports of coastal areas with a high degree of GVC embedding quickly get out of the crisis, yet other regions have been slow to recover or fell into the crisis after the 2008 financial crisis? There must mimic a project which intends to systematically observe how regional GVC network structure affects regional export resilience from the perspective of market integration. Theoretically, put social network theory, GVC theory and evolutionary economic geography theory in an overall consideration, we construct a theoretical framework of regional GVC network structure that affects regional export resilience according to the "sociality" of the regional GVC network structure (network centrality, connection strength and heterogeneity) and its upstream and downstream market technology, resources and information integration mechanism , Empirically, establish and test from province-industry-time panel data for 2008-2014: Firstly, assess the causal effect of regional GVC network structure on short-term regional export resilience; Secondly, Comparing the influence of regional GVC network structure on the source of regional export toughness (structure effect or competition effect) from two stages of impact period and recovery period; Thirdly, discuss how the regional GVC network structure under long-term evolution dominates the three-dimensional capabilities of regional export resilience (export resistance, recovery, and upgrade adjustment power). Finally, we’ll provide policy thinking and decision-making basis for the expansion of China's GVC network structure and the strengthening of export resilience.