基于社会-生态系统视角的哈尼梯田旱作化与弃耕驱动机制研究

农业文化遗产在保护生物多样性、文化多样性和社区可持续生计方面具有重要价值，提供着应对现代农业生态危机的宝贵经验。在市场化和城镇化的冲击下，传统农业土地利用方式被改变，危及农业文化遗产延续的基础。现有研究尚未系统揭示农业文化遗产中传统土地利用方式改变的机制，未能明晰农户—社区—区域和地块—灌区—景观多个尺度之间的相互影响，尤其是对农业遗产社区独特的社会、文化因素在其中的作用研究不足，从而不利于针对性的农业文化遗产保护政策制定。本项目拟针对哈尼梯田农业文化遗产中，稻作梯田转变为旱地或弃耕的过程，运用社会—生态系统理论中的体制转化、扰沌和“级联效应”框架，综合空间分析、案例研究和多主体模型模拟方法，系统揭示哈尼梯田旱作化与弃耕的跨尺度驱动机制和社区资源管理、文化和社会网络的作用，判识系统体制转化的关键阈值。研究将增进对城镇化背景下农业文化遗产演化过程的理解，为农业文化遗产保护政策设计提供支持。

Agricultural heritage systems (AHSs) are of great significance in conserving biodiversity and cultural diversity, sustaining local livelihoods, and provide precious experiences for solving the ecological crisis induced by modern agriculture. The global trends of modernization and urbanization increasingly threat the traditional land use system, thus eroding the foundation of many AHSs. Current understandings on casual mechanisms of land use change did not fully address some factors that are unique but critical in AHSs, including the role of local social and cultural factors, and the cross-scale interactions among ecological, economic and social processes. Therefore, they could not provide sound supports to AHSs conservation policy design. This project will explore the casual mechanism of paddy rice field decreasing (transformed to rain-fed farmland farm or being abandoned) in the Hani Terrace, a Globally Important Agricultural Heritage. Adopting a social-ecological system perspective, and combining spatial statistics, case study and agent-based model simulation, we will systemically explore the casual mechanism of this process, identify the role of community natural resource management, local culture and social network, and identify cross-scale interactions and key threshold of system regime shift. This study will improve the understanding of the evolution of the AHSs under modernization and urbanization, and support AHSs protection.