共伴生关键矿产多尺度峰值预测及预警研究

全球各大经济体在新一轮技术革命和产业革命中的激烈竞争将关键矿产资源的争夺推向高潮，关键矿产的供给能力成为研究热点。然而关键矿产绝大多数是伴生的小宗矿产，传统模型的不确定性和数据的稀缺使得亟待解决的关键矿产峰值研究成为科学难题。本课题拟在我们已经取得的成果基础上，以共伴生性定量表达为突破口，从矿山、国家、全球三个实用尺度展开关键矿产峰值研究。首先尝试用多源数据补充现有数据库，探索结合机器学习方法识别三个尺度上的相关性要素；结合成本收益法和时序分析法，测度随矿床经济性和矿石品位变化的最终可采储量；通过相关分析构建刻画不同尺度共伴生矿产相关性的M-Copula函数，用变系数面板回归法估计模型参数，构建不同尺度共伴生关键矿产Copula-Hubbert峰值模型；最后在三个尺度对稀土、钴、铟等典型关键矿产做峰值预测并预警。本课题将对峰值理论和方法进行创新，也将为国家关键矿产战略的制定提供科学依据。

The fierce competition of the world's major economies in the new round of technological revolution and the industrial revolution has pushed the competition for critical mineral resources to the most exciting part, and the supply capacity of critical minerals has become a research hotspot. However, the vast majority of critical minerals are co(by)-product minerals, the uncertainty of traditional models and the scarcity of data make it a scientific problem to study the peak value of critical minerals that need to be solved urgently. On the basis of the achievements we have made, this topic intends to take the co-associated quantitative expression as a breakthrough to study the critical mineral peak value from three practical scales: mine, national and global. First of all, we try to supplement the existing database with multi-source data, explore the combination of the machine learning method to identify the correlation elements on three scales and combine the cost-benefit method and time series analysis method to measure the ultimately recoverable reserves varying with deposit economy and ore grade. The M-Copula function describing the correlation of co(by)-product minerals in different scales is constructed through correlation analysis, and the model parameters are estimated by variable coefficient panel regression method, and the Copula-Hubbert peak value model of co(by)-product critical minerals in different scales is constructed. Finally, the peak values of rare earth, cobalt, indium, and other typical critical minerals are predicted and early warning at three scales. This research will innovate the peak theory and method, and will also provide a scientific basis for the formulation of the national critical mineral strategy.