杉木（ Cunninghamia lanceolata）是我国南方主要的速生丰产林树种，在我国森林资源中占有重要的地位，其生长变化不仅受到气候的影响，还受到林分变量和地形因子的影响。因此，需要在这三类变量因子中寻找杉木人工林生长变化的驱动因子，比较不同驱动因子的重要性。此外，有些因子对杉木林分生长的驱动是随机的，含有不确定性，故含不确定性变量的杉木林分生长模型如何构建，值得深入研究。本项目拟依托亚热带气候梯度（北带四川纳溪、中带福建邵武江西分宜、南带广西凭祥）连续观测30余年的杉木密度试验林资料，利用贝叶斯平均模型法（BMA），系统揭示亚热带气候梯度杉木人工林林分优势高、单木直径、森林生产力和枯损率在气候变化背景下的生长变化情况，探索其林分优势高、单木直径、森林生产力和枯损率变化的驱动因子，构建其不确定性生长变化模型系，为杉木经营者应对气候变化科学经营管理杉木和决策提供理论依据。

Chinese fir (Cunninghamia lanceolata (Lamb.) Hook.) is the most important conifer species for timber production with huge distribution area in southern China. Forest growth of Chinese fir plantations, not only influenced by climate change, but stand variables and topography variables. Thus, it is in great need to explore the drivers of forest growth of Chinese fir among the three driver groups, compare the importance of the drivers and establish the growth uncertainty models due to the stocastic drivers. In this project, Bayesian model averaging (BMA) method was used to explore the drivers of forest growth of Chinese fir plantations in subtropical climate gradients, including north zone (Naxi in Sichuan), middle zone (Shaowu in Fujian, Fenyi in Jiangxi), and south zone (Pingxiang in Guangxi). These stands have been measured with over 30 years continuance. What drivers of stand dominate height growth, individual tree diameter growth, forest productivity, and tree mortality will be involved in the project, and also the responding uncertainty models will be developed. Seeing the drivers of forest growth of Chinese fir in subtropical climate gradients is helpful for forest managers to carry out reasonable practices for facing the climate change.