稳定的财税政策环境是保证市场在资源配置中起决定性作用的前提。但在我国现行制度下，地方政府有动力通过财税政策的频繁调整来争取财政竞争优势，这增加了财税政策的不确定性。在此环境下，企业的应对能力不同，其受到冲击亦有异。通过对企业决策的影响，财税政策不确定性最终导致市场效率损失。本项目对财税政策不确定性的科学界定、制度成因、经济后果和应对办法进行系统研究。本项目主要基于混沌理论和协同学、博弈论、门限向量自回归模型等非线性经济学技术，解决财税政策不确定性的理论内涵和度量方法、生成演化的动力学机理及其制度条件、对企业配置决策的异质性影响机理、以及政府和企业层面的治理和自适应机制等科学问题。本项目有助于明确财税政策不确定性理论实质、生成演化机理和对市场资源配置的非线性影响渠道，为建设我国规范透明的财税制度环境以及提升企业应对政策不确定性的能力提供对策建议，具有较强的理论意义和应用价值。

A stable environment of fiscal policy is the important prerequisite for market to play a decisive role in resource allocation. But under the recent system, Chinese local governments have the motivation to gain advantage by adjusting fiscal policy frequently in the fiscal competition, which promotes the fiscal policy uncertainty. Under this background, firms are impacted differently because of their different ability. Though the shock to the firm decisions, the fiscal policy uncertainty finally leads to the mismatch of resource. The scientific definition, institutional cause, economic consequence and coping method are going to be studied in the project. Based on the techniques of nonlinear economics, such as the chaos theory, the synergetics, the game theory, the TVAR model and so on, many scientific problems, concluding the qualitative and quantitative definition on fiscal policy uncertainty, the dynamics and institutional reasons for its formation and evolution, its heterogeneous influence mechanism on firm’s allocation decision as well as the mechanism to deal with the fiscal policy uncertainty for both government and firm, will be researched.The theoretical essence, mechanism of formation and evolution and the nonlinear influence on the allocation of market resources of fiscal policy uncertainty are clarified, and suggestions about how to construct the regulatory and transparent environment of fiscal policy and how to improve the ability to deal with the fiscal policy uncertainty are provided in the project, which has great theoretical significance and practical values.