NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES INTERNATIONAL DIFFERENCES IN LONGEVITY AND HEALTH AND THEIR ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES
NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES INTERNATIONAL DIFFERENCES IN LONGEVITY AND HEALTH AND THEIR ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES
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NBER 工作论文系列：长寿和健康方面的国际差异及其经济后果
DOI：
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发表时间：
2011
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Yuhui Zheng
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
P. Michaud;D. Goldman;D. Lakdawalla;A. Gailey;Yuhui Zheng
1975年，50岁的美国人预期寿命略长于欧洲人。到2005年，美国人在这个年龄段的预期寿命与欧洲相比已经有了很大的差异。我们发现，这种不断增长的寿命差距主要是近老年美国人健康状况相对于欧洲同龄人真实的下降的症状。特别是，我们使用微观模拟的方法来预测美国的寿命会是什么样子，如果美国的健康趋势接近欧洲。我们发现，健康状况的差异可以解释剩余预期寿命日益增长的差距。此外，我们量化了健康状况恶化的公共财政后果。该模型预测，从2004年到2050年，逐步将美国人的健康状况转移到欧洲人的健康状况，可以节省高达1.1万亿美元的贴现总卫生支出。Pierre-Carl Michaud The兰德公司1776 Main Street Santa Monica，CA 90401 michaud@rand.org Dana Goldman The兰德公司1776 Main Street P.O.信箱2138圣莫尼卡，加利福尼亚州90407-2138和NBER dgoldman@rand.org大流士Lakdawalla的兰德公司1776主街圣莫尼卡，加利福尼亚州90407-2138和NBER darius@rand.org亚当盖利的兰德公司1776主街邮政编码。Box 2138 Santa Monica，CA 90401 agailey@rand.org Yuhui Zheng兰德公司1776 Main Street Santa Monica，CA 90401 zheng@rand.org
In 1975, 50 year-old Americans could expect to live slightly longer than their European counterparts. By 2005, American life expectancy at that age has diverged substantially compared to Europe. We find that this growing longevity gap is primarily the symptom of real declines in the health of near-elderly Americans, relative to their European peers. In particular, we use a microsimulation approach to project what US longevity would look like, if US health trends approximated those in Europe. We find that differences in health can explain most of the growing gap in remaining life expectancy. In addition, we quantify the public finance consequences of this deterioration in health. The model predicts that gradually moving American cohorts to the health status enjoyed by Europeans could save up to $1.1 trillion in discounted total health expenditures from 2004 to 2050. Pierre-Carl Michaud The RAND Corporation 1776 Main Street Santa Monica, CA 90401 michaud@rand.org Dana Goldman The RAND Corporation 1776 Main Street P.O. Box 2138 Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138 and NBER dgoldman@rand.org Darius Lakdawalla The RAND Corporation 1776 Main Street Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138 and NBER darius@rand.org Adam Gailey The RAND Corporation 1776 Main Street P.O. Box 2138 Santa Monica, CA 90401 agailey@rand.org Yuhui Zheng The RAND Corporation 1776 Main Street Santa Monica, CA 90401 zheng@rand.org
影响因子：
158.5
作者：
Olshansky, SJ;Passaro, DJ;Ludwig, DS
通讯作者：
Ludwig, DS
影响因子：
120.7
作者：
Banks, J;Marmot, M;Smith, JP
通讯作者：
Smith, JP
健康趋势和医疗创新对未来老年人的影响。
DOI：
10.1377/hlthaff.w5.r5
发表时间：
2005
期刊：
Health affairs (Project Hope)
影响因子：
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作者：
Goldman,DanaP;Shang,Baoping;Bhattacharya,Jayanta;Garber,AlanM;Hurd,Michael;Joyce,GeoffreyF;Lakdawalla,DariusN;Panis,Constantijn;Shekelle,PaulG
通讯作者：
Shekelle,PaulG