Income, consumer preferences, and the future of livestock-derived food demand.
Income, consumer preferences, and the future of livestock-derived food demand.
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DOI：
10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2021.102343
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发表时间：
2021-09
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Willenbockel D
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Komarek AM;Dunston S;Enahoro D;Godfray HCJ;Herrero M;Mason-D'Croz D;Rich KM;Scarborough P;Springmann M;Sulser TB;Wiebe K;Willenbockel D
近几十年来，地球仪的人类饮食发生了持续和重大的变化，包括更多的牲畜衍生食品。持续的辩论仔细研究这些饮食变化如何影响人类健康，自然环境和生计。然而，在这些辩论中，对于未来几十年对牲畜衍生食品的需求如何演变，对于包括人口，收入和消费者偏好在内的关键变化驱动因素的一系列情景，仍然存在未回答的问题。在我们的情景中，人口和收入的未来趋势来自三个共同的社会经济途径。我们使用了基于Euro的模型来表明，如果收入和人口的趋势继续沿着中等轨迹发展，那么全球红肉（牛肉，绵羊，山羊和猪肉），家禽，牛奶和鸡蛋的平均蛋白质需求将在2020年至2050年期间每人增加14%，总计增加38%。最快的人均增长率是南亚的49%和撒哈拉以南非洲的55%。我们发现，如果高收入国家的需求收入弹性（基于需求对收入变化的响应度，消费者偏好的部分代理）到2050年在人均收入增长的中等轨迹下下降100%，那么高收入国家的人均红肉需求将下降2.8%。价格是需求的一个重要驱动因素，我们的研究结果表明，高收入国家红肉需求下降的结果与红肉价格上涨密切相关，正如我们基于Euro的模型所预测的那样。如果需求的收入弹性下降发生在所有国家，而不仅仅是高收入国家，那么高收入国家的人均红肉需求实际上将在2050年增加8.9%，因为收入弹性驱动的全球需求下降降低了价格，价格下降的影响超过了需求的收入弹性下降的影响。我们的研究结果表明，收入，价格和需求的收入弹性之间的相互作用的重要性，在预测未来的需求牲畜衍生食品。我们补充现有文献的粮食系统和全球变化提供定量证据的可能空间，未来的需求牲畜衍生食品，这对人类健康和自然环境具有重要意义。
In recent decades there has been a sustained and substantial shift in human diets across the globe towards including more livestock-derived foods. Continuing debates scrutinize how these dietary shifts affect human health, the natural environment, and livelihoods. However, amidst these debates there remain unanswered questions about how demand for livestock-derived foods may evolve over the upcoming decades for a range of scenarios for key drivers of change including human population, income, and consumer preferences. Future trends in human population and income in our scenarios were sourced from three of the shared socioeconomic pathways. We used scenario-based modeling to show that average protein demand for red meat (beef, sheep, goats, and pork), poultry, dairy milk, and eggs across the globe would increase by 14% per person and 38% in total between the year 2020 and the year 2050 if trends in income and population continue along a mid-range trajectory. The fastest per person rates of increase were 49% in South Asia and 55% in sub-Saharan Africa. We show that per person demand for red meat in high-income countries would decline by 2.8% if income elasticities of demand (a partial proxy for consumer preferences, based on the responsiveness of demand to income changes) in high-income countries decline by 100% by 2050 under a mid-range trajectory for per person income growth, compared to their current trajectory. Prices are an important driver of demand, and our results demonstrate that the result of a decline in red meat demand in high-income countries is strongly related to rising red meat prices, as projected by our scenario-based modeling. If the decline in the income elasticity of demand occurred in all countries rather than only in high-income countries, then per person red meat demand in high-income countries would actually increase in 2050 by 8.9% because the income elasticity-driven decline in global demand reduces prices, and the effect of lower prices outweighs the effect of a decline in the income elasticity of demand. Our results demonstrate the importance of interactions between income, prices, and the income elasticity of demand in projecting future demand for livestock-derived foods. We complement the existing literature on food systems and global change by providing quantitative evidence about the possible space for the future demand of livestock-derived foods, which has important implications for human health and the natural environment.
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DOI：
10.1017/s0029665116000100
发表时间：
2016-08
期刊：
The Proceedings of the Nutrition Society
影响因子：
--
作者：
Clonan A;Roberts KE;Holdsworth M
通讯作者：
Holdsworth M
中国畜牧业转型：驱动力、影响和后果
影响因子：
13.6
作者：
Bai Z;Ma W;Ma L;Velthof GL;Wei Z;Havlík P;Oenema O;Lee MRF;Zhang F
通讯作者：
Zhang F
影响因子：
2.1
作者：
Cornelsen, Laura;Green, Rosemary;Smith, Richard D.
通讯作者：
Smith, Richard D.
影响因子：
27.6
作者：
Eker, Sibel;Reese, Gerhard;Obersteiner, Michael
通讯作者：
Obersteiner, Michael
影响因子：
4.2
作者：
CAPPS, O
通讯作者：
CAPPS, O