China's livestock transition: Driving forces, impacts, and consequences.
China's livestock transition: Driving forces, impacts, and consequences.
复制标题
中国畜牧业转型：驱动力、影响和后果
DOI：
10.1126/sciadv.aar8534
复制
发表时间：
2018-07
期刊：
影响因子：
13.6
通讯作者：
Zhang F
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Bai Z;Ma W;Ma L;Velthof GL;Wei Z;Havlík P;Oenema O;Lee MRF;Zhang F
在畜牧生产力显著提高之后，中国现在需要提高效率和环境绩效。在过去三十年中，中国畜牧业经历了巨大的转型，对国内和全球粮食供应、资源利用、氮和磷损失以及温室气体（GHG）排放产生了深远影响。我们对这一转变的驱动力及其对国家和全球的影响进行了全面分析。在不到30年的时间里，中国的牲畜单位（lu）数量增加了两倍，主要是通过无地工业化牲畜生产系统的增长和单腹饲养牲畜的增加（从占总lu的62%增加到74%）。需求的增加以及新品种、新技术的供应和政府的支持推动了变化。1980 - 2010年间，动物源蛋白产量提高了4.9倍，畜群水平氮利用效率提高了3倍，每克蛋白质平均饲料用量和温室气体排放量降低了1 / 2。在同一时期，动物饲料进口增加了49倍，大气中氨和温室气体的总排放量增加了一倍，水道中的氮损失增加了两倍。因此，中国的畜牧业转型具有重大的全球影响。利用共享社会经济路径情景对2050年的预测表明，畜牧生产及其影响将进一步发生重大变化。在这些可能的发展轨迹的基础上，我们提出了一种由政府、加工行业、消费者和零售商实施的替代转型。这一新的转变旨在提高系统层面的生产效率和环境绩效，并将作物-牲畜生产、全链粪便管理和空间规划作为主要组成部分。
After significant increases in livestock productivity, China now needs to improve efficiency and environmental performance. China’s livestock industry has experienced a vast transition during the last three decades, with profound effects on domestic and global food provision, resource use, nitrogen and phosphorus losses, and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. We provide a comprehensive analysis of the driving forces around this transition and its national and global consequences. The number of livestock units (LUs) tripled in China in less than 30 years, mainly through the growth of landless industrial livestock production systems and the increase in monogastric livestock (from 62 to 74% of total LUs). Changes were fueled through increases in demand as well as, supply of new breeds, new technology, and government support. Production of animal source protein increased 4.9 times, nitrogen use efficiency at herd level tripled, and average feed use and GHG emissions per gram protein produced decreased by a factor of 2 between 1980 and 2010. In the same period, animal feed imports have increased 49 times, total ammonia and GHG emissions to the atmosphere doubled, and nitrogen losses to watercourses tripled. As a consequence, China’s livestock transition has significant global impact. Forecasts for 2050, using the Shared Socio-economic Pathways scenarios, indicate major further changes in livestock production and impacts. On the basis of these possible trajectories, we suggest an alternative transition, which should be implemented by government, processing industries, consumers, and retailers. This new transition is targeted to increase production efficiency and environmental performance at system level, with coupling of crop-livestock production, whole chain manure management, and spatial planning as major components.
登录
查看更多内容
影响因子：
2.4
作者：
Bai, Z. H.;Ma, L.;Zhang, F. S.
通讯作者：
Zhang, F. S.
影响因子：
4.4
作者：
Gao, J.;Zhang, H. J.;Qi, G. H.
通讯作者：
Qi, G. H.
影响因子：
11.4
作者：
Bai, Zhaohai;Ma, Lin;Zhang, Fusuo
通讯作者：
Zhang, Fusuo
影响因子：
6.1
作者：
Bai, Xue;Bai, Fan;Lin, Shunqin
通讯作者：
Lin, Shunqin
DOI：
10.5713/ajas.2010.10055
发表时间：
2010-11-01
期刊：
ASIAN-AUSTRALASIAN JOURNAL OF ANIMAL SCIENCES
影响因子：
--
作者：
Du, Jinping;Liang, Yi;Meng, Qingxiang
通讯作者：
Meng, Qingxiang