Capital Flows at Risk: Taming the Ebbs and Flows
Capital Flows at Risk: Taming the Ebbs and Flows
复制标题
资本流动面临风险：抑制潮起潮落
DOI：
--
复制
发表时间：
2019
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Silvia Sgherri
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Gastón Gelos;L. Gornicka;R. Koepke;R. Sahay;Silvia Sgherri
流向新兴市场的资本的波动性继续给决策者带来挑战。在本文中，我们提出了一个新的框架来回答关键的政策问题：什么政策和政策框架是最有效的抑制急剧的资本流动，以应对全球冲击？不同政策的近期和中期权衡是什么？我们使用分位数回归框架来解决这些问题，根据当前的国内结构特征，政策和全球金融状况来预测资本流向新兴市场的整个未来概率分布。这一新方法使决策者能够量化资本流动风险，评估减轻风险的政策工具，从而为资本流动风险管理框架奠定基础。
The volatility of capital flows to emerging markets continues to pose challenges to policymakers. In this paper, we propose a new framework to answer critical policy questions: What policies and policy frameworks are most effective in dampening sharp capital flow movements in response to global shocks? What are the near- versus medium-term trade-offs of different policies? We tackle these questions using a quantile regression framework to predict the entire future probability distribution of capital flows to emerging markets, based on current domestic structural characteristics, policies, and global financial conditions. This new approach allows policymakers to quantify capital flows risks and evaluate policy tools to mitigate them, thus building the foundation of a risk management framework for capital flows.
变化无常的资本流动和紧缩模型
影响因子：
8.2
作者：
Caballero, Ricardo J.;Simsek, Alp
通讯作者：
Simsek, Alp