Bio-plastics in the context of competing demands on agricultural land in 2050
Bio-plastics in the context of competing demands on agricultural land in 2050
复制标题
2050 年农业用地竞争需求背景下的生物塑料
DOI：
10.1080/19397038.2011.602439
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发表时间：
2012
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
A. Clegg
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
J. Colwill;E. Wright;S. Rahimifard;A. Clegg
生物塑料行业的最新趋势表明，人们正在迅速转向使用生物衍生的传统塑料，例如聚乙烯 (bio-PE)。虽然从历史上看，生物塑料发展的一个重要推动力是其生物降解性，但生物聚乙烯等塑料的采用是由其生产原材料的可再生性推动的。这些可再生资源的生产需要使用农业用地，而农业用地的可用性有限。土地也是粮食生产的基本要求，并且对于燃料生产变得越来越重要。本文提出的研究设想到 2050 年，所有塑料和液体燃料均由可再生资源生产。通过制定不同的消费和生产力情景，并使用当前和历史数据进行预测，根据可用农业土地总量，研究满足全球食品、液体燃料和塑料需求的可行性。报告了一系列结果，比较了从低到高的消耗与从低到高的生产率。然而，只有通过对消费和生产率均适中的中点情景组合的分析，才能得出最重要的结论。显然，虽然生物塑料为可再生材料的使用提供了诱人的机会，但到 2050 年的开发活动应继续侧重于寻找不与粮食生产竞争的替代原料，并应优先考虑通过良好的设计和有效的报废管理来有效利用材料。
Recent trends in the bio-plastics industry indicate a rapid shift towards the use of bio-derived conventional plastics such as polyethylene (bio-PE). Whereas historically a significant driver for bio-plastics development has been their biodegradability, the adoption of plastics such as bio-PE is driven by the renewability of the raw materials from which they are produced. The production of these renewable resources requires the use of agricultural land, which is limited in its availability. Land is also an essential requirement for food production and is becoming increasingly important for fuel production. The research presented in this paper envisages a situation, in the year 2050, where all plastics and liquid fuels are produced from renewable resources. Through the development of different consumption and productivity scenarios, projected using current and historic data, the feasibility of meeting global demands for food, liquid fuels and plastics is investigated, based on total agricultural land availability. A range of results, comparing low-to-high consumption with low-to-high productivity, are reported. However, it is from the analysis of the mid-point scenario combinations, where consumption and productivity are both moderate, that the most significant conclusions can be drawn. It is clear that while bio-plastics offer attractive opportunities for the use of renewable materials, development activities to 2050 should continue to focus on the search for alternative feed stocks that do not compete with food production, and should prioritise the efficient use of materials through good design and effective end-of-life management.
影响因子：
6.5
作者：
Harvey, Mark;Pilgrim, Sarah
通讯作者：
Pilgrim, Sarah