Persistence in epidemic metapopulations: quantifying the rescue effects for measles, mumps, rubella and whooping cough.
Persistence in epidemic metapopulations: quantifying the rescue effects for measles, mumps, rubella and whooping cough.
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DOI：
10.1371/journal.pone.0074696
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发表时间：
2013
期刊：
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Bjørnstad ON
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Metcalf CJ;Hampson K;Tatem AJ;Grenfell BT;Bjørnstad ON
种群拯救效应被认为是许多急性免疫感染持续存在的关键。然而，通过空间耦合增强持久性之前尚未被量化。在这里，我们使用世界卫生组织报告的全球发病率数据，通过比较岛国与所有其他国家的持续性，同时控制疫苗覆盖率、出生率和经济发展等关键变量，估计了四种儿童感染的集合种群拯救效果。岛屿上灭绝的相对风险明显更高，大约是大陆国家灭绝风险的两倍。此外，正如所预料的那样，传染期较长的感染往往具有最强的集合种群拯救效应。我们的结果量化了人口统计和当地社区规模控制疾病持续性的概念。
Metapopulation rescue effects are thought to be key to the persistence of many acute immunizing infections. Yet the enhancement of persistence through spatial coupling has not been previously quantified. Here we estimate the metapopulation rescue effects for four childhood infections using global WHO reported incidence data by comparing persistence on island countries vs all other countries, while controlling for key variables such as vaccine cover, birth rates and economic development. The relative risk of extinction on islands is significantly higher, and approximately double the risk of extinction in mainland countries. Furthermore, as may be expected, infections with longer infectious periods tend to have the strongest metapopulation rescue effects. Our results quantitate the notion that demography and local community size controls disease persistence.
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DOI：
10.1098/rspb.2006.0030
发表时间：
2007-05-07
期刊：
Proceedings. Biological sciences
影响因子：
--
作者：
Conlan AJ;Grenfell BT
通讯作者：
Grenfell BT
影响因子：
4.8
作者：
Keeling, MJ
通讯作者：
Keeling, MJ
影响因子：
1.4
作者：
Nåsell, I
通讯作者：
Nåsell, I
影响因子：
15.8
作者：
Walllinga, J;Heijne, JCM;Kretzschmar, M
通讯作者：
Kretzschmar, M
影响因子：
6.1
作者：
de Roos, AM;Leonardsson, K;Mittelbach, GG
通讯作者：
Mittelbach, GG