Seasonality and the persistence and invasion of measles.
Seasonality and the persistence and invasion of measles.
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DOI：
10.1098/rspb.2006.0030
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发表时间：
2007-05-07
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Grenfell BT
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Conlan AJ;Grenfell BT
麻疹的临界群落大小(CCS)可以说是生态学中最容易理解的随机阈值，它区分了持续存在的种群和容易灭绝的种群。使用简单的模型，我们探索了一个相对被忽视的CCS与出生率之间的关系。持续性与出生率的主要正向关系因伴随的潜在决定论过程的动态转变而变得复杂。我们表明，这些转变意味着高出生率欠发达国家的CCS较低，而与低出生率、工业化国家的经验相反，接种疫苗后CCS可能会增加。我们还考虑了CCS对麻疹起源的进化影响；这一分析探索了侵袭性和持久性的确定性和随机性阈值如何限制这种高传染性病原体成功地定植其人类宿主的机制。
The critical community size (CCS) for measles, which separates persistent from extinction-prone populations, is arguably the best understood stochastic threshold in ecology. Using simple models, we explore a relatively neglected relationship of how the CCS scales with birth rate. A predominantly positive relationship of persistence with birth rate is complicated by the accompanying dynamical transitions of the underlying deterministic process. We show that these transitions imply a lower CCS for high birth rate less developed countries and contrary to the experience in lower birth rate, industrial countries, the CCS may increase after vaccination. We also consider the evolutionary implications of the CCS for the origin of measles; this analysis explores how the deterministic and stochastic thresholds for invasion and persistence set limits on the mechanism by which this highly infectious pathogen could have successfully colonized its human host.
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影响因子：
6.1
作者：
de Roos, AM;Leonardsson, K;Mittelbach, GG
通讯作者：
Mittelbach, GG
影响因子：
5.8
作者：
Broutin, H;Mantilla-Beniers, NB;Rohani, P
通讯作者：
Rohani, P
影响因子：
1.4
作者：
ARON, JL
通讯作者：
ARON, JL
DOI：
10.2307/2343186
发表时间：
1960-01-01
期刊：
JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL STATISTICAL SOCIETY SERIES A-GENERAL
影响因子：
--
作者：
BARTLETT, MS
通讯作者：
BARTLETT, MS
影响因子：
2
作者：
BLACK, FL
通讯作者：
BLACK, FL