Hurricane damage assessment for residential construction considering the non-stationarity in hurricane intensity and frequency
Hurricane damage assessment for residential construction considering the non-stationarity in hurricane intensity and frequency
复制标题
考虑飓风强度和频率非平稳性的住宅建筑飓风损害评估
DOI：
10.1007/s13131-016-0828-7
复制
发表时间：
2016-12
影响因子：
1.4
通讯作者：
Zhang Long
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Wang Cao;Li Quanwang;Pang Long;Zou Aming;Zhang Long
飓风等自然灾害可能对沿海地区的土木结构和基础设施造成广泛的经济损失和社会破坏，这意味着了解飓风下的建筑性能并正确评估飓风损害的重要性。据报告，由于气候变化的潜在影响，飓风的强度和频率会随着时间而变化。考虑到飓风强度和频率的非平稳性，提出了一种基于概率的沿海建筑物飓风灾害评估模型。采用非齐次泊松过程来模拟飓风发生的非平稳性，而飓风强度的非平稳性则由时变统计参数（例如，平均值和/或标准差），用它来明确评估飓风累积损失的平均值和变化。以美国佛罗里达州迈阿密-戴德县为例，说明本文提出的飓风灾害评估方法。利用一些有代表性的飓风参数变化模式，研究了气候变化引起的飓风强度和发生率的非平稳性在飓风灾害中的作用。
Natural hazards such as hurricanes may cause extensive economic losses and social disruption for civil structures and infrastructures in coastal areas, implying the importance of understanding the construction performance subjected to hurricanes and assessing the hurricane damages properly. The intensity and frequency of hurricanes have been reported to change with time due to the potential impact of climate change. In this paper, a probability-based model of hurricane damage assessment for coastal constructions is proposed taking into account the non-stationarity in hurricane intensity and frequency. The non-homogeneous Poisson process is employed to model the non-stationarity in hurricane occurrence while the non-stationarity in hurricane intensity is reflected by the time-variant statistical parameters (e.g., mean value and/or standard deviation), with which the mean value and variation of the cumulative hurricane damage are evaluated explicitly. The Miami-Dade County, Florida, USA, is chosen to illustrate the hurricane damage assessment method proposed in this paper. The role of non-stationarity in hurricane intensity and occurrence rate due to climate change in hurricane damage is investigated using some representative changing patterns of hurricane parameters.
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影响因子：
2.7
作者：
M. Stewart;D. Rosowsky;Zhigang Huang
通讯作者：
M. Stewart;D. Rosowsky;Zhigang Huang
影响因子：
2.7
作者：
Yue Li;M. Stewart
通讯作者：
Yue Li;M. Stewart
DOI：
10.1029/99eo00009
发表时间：
1999-01
期刊：
Eos, Transactions American Geophysical Union
影响因子：
--
作者：
C. Covey;Gleckler
通讯作者：
C. Covey;Gleckler
DOI：
--
发表时间：
2012
期刊：
--
影响因子：
--
作者：
Fangqian Liu
通讯作者：
Fangqian Liu
DOI：
10.1016/j.jweia.2009.05.005
发表时间：
2009-09
影响因子：
4.8
作者：
P. Vickery;F. Masters;M. Powell;D. Wadhera
通讯作者：
P. Vickery;F. Masters;M. Powell;D. Wadhera