The effectiveness of contact tracing in emerging epidemics.
The effectiveness of contact tracing in emerging epidemics.
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DOI：
10.1371/journal.pone.0000012
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发表时间：
2006-12-20
期刊：
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Heesterbeek H
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Klinkenberg D;Fraser C;Heesterbeek H
接触者追踪在控制新发传染病方面发挥着重要作用，但对其有效性知之甚少。在这里，我们推导出一个通用的数学模型如何跟踪的有效性涉及到各个方面的时间，如个人的传染性，（变异）之间的时间感染和基于病毒的检测，并在跟踪过程中的延迟。此外，还考虑了迭代追踪无症状感染者的可能性。有了这些见解，我们解释了为什么接触者追踪对天花和SARS的控制是有效的，对口蹄疫只有部分有效，而对流感可能无效。我们在一个新出现的流行病模型中研究接触者追踪，这个模型足够灵活，可以用于大多数感染。我们认为隔离有症状的感染者是基本方案，并将有效性表示为需要追踪的接触者比例，以使繁殖率小于1。我们获得的一般结果的特殊情况下，这是解释方面的可能成功的跟踪流感，天花，SARS，口蹄疫流行。我们的结论是：（1）与接种疫苗的比例一样，追踪的比例没有一般的预测公式;（2）检测时间的可变性有利于有效追踪;（3）追踪的有效性不需要对潜伏期和追踪延迟的持续时间敏感;（4）迭代跟踪主要是在单步跟踪接近有效时提高有效性。
Contact tracing plays an important role in the control of emerging infectious diseases, but little is known yet about its effectiveness. Here we deduce from a generic mathematical model how effectiveness of tracing relates to various aspects of time, such as the course of individual infectivity, the (variability in) time between infection and symptom-based detection, and delays in the tracing process. In addition, the possibility of iteratively tracing of yet asymptomatic infecteds is considered. With these insights we explain why contact tracing was and will be effective for control of smallpox and SARS, only partially effective for foot-and-mouth disease, and likely not effective for influenza. We investigate contact tracing in a model of an emerging epidemic that is flexible enough to use for most infections. We consider isolation of symptomatic infecteds as the basic scenario, and express effectiveness as the proportion of contacts that need to be traced for a reproduction ratio smaller than 1. We obtain general results for special cases, which are interpreted with respect to the likely success of tracing for influenza, smallpox, SARS, and foot-and-mouth disease epidemics. We conclude that (1) there is no general predictive formula for the proportion to be traced as there is for the proportion to be vaccinated; (2) variability in time to detection is favourable for effective tracing; (3) tracing effectiveness need not be sensitive to the duration of the latent period and tracing delays; (4) iterative tracing primarily improves effectiveness when single-step tracing is on the brink of being effective.
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影响因子：
5
作者：
Eichner, M
通讯作者：
Eichner, M
DOI：
10.1016/s0140-6736(03)13410-1
发表时间：
2003-05-24
期刊：
Lancet (London, England)
影响因子：
--
作者：
Donnelly CA;Ghani AC;Leung GM;Hedley AJ;Fraser C;Riley S;Abu-Raddad LJ;Ho LM;Thach TQ;Chau P;Chan KP;Lam TH;Tse LY;Tsang T;Liu SH;Kong JH;Lau EM;Ferguson NM;Anderson RM
通讯作者：
Anderson RM
影响因子：
64.8
作者：
Ferguson, NM;Donnelly, CA;Anderson, RM
通讯作者：
Anderson, RM
影响因子：
4.5
作者：
Porco TC;Holbrook KA;Fernyak SE;Portnoy DL;Reiter R;Aragón TJ
通讯作者：
Aragón TJ
DOI：
10.1073/pnas.0307506101
发表时间：
2004-04-20
影响因子：
11.1
作者：
Fraser, C;Riley, S;Ferguson, NM
通讯作者：
Ferguson, NM