Quantifying process-level uncertainty contributions to TCRE and carbon budgets for meeting Paris Agreement climate targets
Quantifying process-level uncertainty contributions to TCRE and carbon budgets for meeting Paris Agreement climate targets
复制标题
量化过程层面的不确定性对 TCRE 和碳预算的贡献，以实现《巴黎协定》气候目标
DOI：
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发表时间：
2020
影响因子：
6.7
通讯作者：
P. Friedlingstein
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
C. Jones;P. Friedlingstein
要实现《巴黎协定》的目标，需要大幅度、快速地减少人为二氧化碳排放，但减排的幅度和深度存在不确定性。地球系统模型为量化排放与全球气候变化之间的联系提供了一种手段。利用TCRE-Transient Climate Response对累积碳排放的响应，我们可以估计剩余碳预算达到1.5或2 °C。但不确定性很大，这阻碍了这一概念的实用性。与特定全球温度上升相关的碳预算的不确定性是由地球物理系统决定的，因此地球系统建模具有明确和高度优先的职责，以解决和减少这种不确定性。在这里，我们探讨了跨三代地球系统模型的多模型碳循环模拟，以定量评估传播到TCRE的不确定性来源。我们的分析带来了新的见解，使我们能够确定如何更好地指导我们的研究重点，以减少这种不确定性。我们强调，使用碳预算估计必须牢记地球物理系统产生的不确定性，我们建议碳循环研究界需要重新关注活动的具体领域，以减少这种不确定性。我们的结论是，我们应该修改重点从气候反馈的碳循环，把更多的重点放在二氧化碳作为碳汇的主要驱动力和他们的长期行为。我们提出的框架将使对碳循环组成部分的多重约束传播到对剩余碳预算的约束。
To achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement requires deep and rapid reductions in anthropogenic CO2 emissions, but uncertainty surrounds the magnitude and depth of reductions. Earth system models provide a means to quantify the link from emissions to global climate change. Using the concept of TCRE—the transient climate response to cumulative carbon emissions—we can estimate the remaining carbon budget to achieve 1.5 or 2 °C. But the uncertainty is large, and this hinders the usefulness of the concept. Uncertainty in carbon budgets associated with a given global temperature rise is determined by the physical Earth system, and therefore Earth system modelling has a clear and high priority remit to address and reduce this uncertainty. Here we explore multi-model carbon cycle simulations across three generations of Earth system models to quantitatively assess the sources of uncertainty which propagate through to TCRE. Our analysis brings new insights which will allow us to determine how we can better direct our research priorities in order to reduce this uncertainty. We emphasise that uses of carbon budget estimates must bear in mind the uncertainty stemming from the biogeophysical Earth system, and we recommend specific areas where the carbon cycle research community needs to re-focus activity in order to try to reduce this uncertainty. We conclude that we should revise focus from the climate feedback on the carbon cycle to place more emphasis on CO2 as the main driver of carbon sinks and their long-term behaviour. Our proposed framework will enable multiple constraints on components of the carbon cycle to propagate to constraints on remaining carbon budgets.
影响因子：
6.7
作者：
Booth, Ben B. B.;Jones, Chris D.;Lloyd, Jon
通讯作者：
Lloyd, Jon
影响因子：
5.1
作者：
Jones, Chris D.;Froelicher, Thomas L.;Burger, Friedrich A.
通讯作者：
Burger, Friedrich A.
影响因子：
4.3
作者：
Eby, M.;Weaver, A. J.;Zhao, F.
通讯作者：
Zhao, F.