Disease transmission and control modelling at the science-policy interface.
Disease transmission and control modelling at the science-policy interface.
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DOI：
10.1098/rsfs.2021.0013
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发表时间：
2021-12-06
期刊：
影响因子：
4.4
通讯作者：
Donnelly CA
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
McCabe R;Donnelly CA
2019冠状病毒病（COVID-19）大流行扰乱了全球数十亿人的生活。在整个大流行期间，数学建模一直是一种关键工具，用于探索未得到缓解的流行病对公共卫生的潜在影响。这些研究的结果为各国政府决定实施非药物干预措施以控制病毒传播提供了依据。本文探讨了新冠肺炎大流行期间大不列颠及北爱尔兰联合王国（英国）的模式、决策、媒体和公众之间的复杂关系。这样做不仅为COVID-19建模提供了重要的历史背景，以及它如何影响了英国的应对措施，而且随着大流行的持续和展望未来的大流行防范，了解这些关系以及如何改善它们至关重要。因此，我们综合了通过三种方法收集到的信息：一项公开列出突发事件科学咨询小组、大流行性流感科学建模小组和其他类似咨询机构与会者的调查，对科学传播专家和前科学顾问的采访，以及审查2020年以来一些关键的COVID-19建模文献。我们的研究强调了在建模者、决策者和公众之间增加双向沟通的愿望，以及以清晰的方式传达传输模型中固有的不确定性的需要。在作出下一次紧急反应之前，应仔细考虑这些方面。
The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has disrupted the lives of billions across the world. Mathematical modelling has been a key tool deployed throughout the pandemic to explore the potential public health impact of an unmitigated epidemic. The results of such studies have informed governments' decisions to implement non-pharmaceutical interventions to control the spread of the virus. In this article, we explore the complex relationships between models, decision-making, the media and the public during the COVID-19 pandemic in the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland (UK). Doing so not only provides an important historical context of COVID-19 modelling and how it has shaped the UK response, but as the pandemic continues and looking towards future pandemic preparedness, understanding these relationships and how they might be improved is critical. As such, we have synthesized information gathered via three methods: a survey to publicly list attendees of the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies, the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling and other comparable advisory bodies, interviews with science communication experts and former scientific advisors, and reviewing some of the key COVID-19 modelling literature from 2020. Our research highlights the desire for increased bidirectional communication between modellers, decision-makers and the public, as well as the need to convey uncertainty inherent in transmission models in a clear manner. These aspects should be considered carefully ahead of the next emergency response.
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影响因子：
29.9
作者：
Aleta A;Martín-Corral D;Pastore Y Piontti A;Ajelli M;Litvinova M;Chinazzi M;Dean NE;Halloran ME;Longini IM Jr;Merler S;Pentland A;Vespignani A;Moro E;Moreno Y
通讯作者：
Moreno Y
DOI：
10.1098/rstb.2021.0001
发表时间：
2021-07-19
期刊：
Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences
影响因子：
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作者：
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影响因子：
8.8
作者：
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通讯作者：
Gumel, Abba B.
DOI：
10.1098/rstb.2020.0274
发表时间：
2021-07-19
期刊：
Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences
影响因子：
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作者：
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通讯作者：
Déirdre Hollingsworth T
DOI：
10.1073/pnas.2006520117
发表时间：
2020-07-21
影响因子：
11.1
作者：
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通讯作者：
Sledge, Daniel