Dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 with waning immunity in the UK population.
Dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 with waning immunity in the UK population.
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DOI：
10.1098/rstb.2020.0274
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发表时间：
2021-07-19
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Déirdre Hollingsworth T
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Crellen T;Pi L;Davis EL;Pollington TM;Lucas TCD;Ayabina D;Borlase A;Toor J;Prem K;Medley GF;Klepac P;Déirdre Hollingsworth T
免疫动态对于了解 SARS-CoV-2 大流行的长期模式至关重要。据记录，在初次感染 48-142 天后出现了几例 SARS-CoV-2 再次感染病例，并且对季节性流行冠状病毒的免疫力估计不到 1 年。我们使用年龄结构的确定性模型，利用英国人口的接触数据探索潜在的免疫动态。在非住院个体对 SARS-CoV-2 的免疫力平均持续三个月、住院个体平均一年、封锁结束后有效传染数为 1.2（我们最坏情况）的情况下，我们发现第二个高峰出现在 2020 年冬季，每日最多感染者为 387 000 例，每日新增病例为 125 000 例；比具有永久免疫力的情况高出三倍。我们的模型表明，在 6 月封锁结束至 2020 年秋季期间进行采样时，进行纵向血清学调查以确定人群免疫力是否减弱将最能提供信息。在此期间之后，由于第二波浪潮，预计携带 SARS-CoV-2 抗体的人群比例将会增加。总体而言，我们的分析为政策制定者提供了对英国 SARS-CoV-2 长期动态的考虑，并表明旨在实现群体免疫的策略可能会导致反复感染浪潮，因为对再感染的免疫力不是永久性的。本文是主题“塑造英国早期 COVID-19 大流行应对措施的建模”的一部分。
The dynamics of immunity are crucial to understanding the long-term patterns of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. Several cases of reinfection with SARS-CoV-2 have been documented 48–142 days after the initial infection and immunity to seasonal circulating coronaviruses is estimated to be shorter than 1 year. Using an age-structured, deterministic model, we explore potential immunity dynamics using contact data from the UK population. In the scenario where immunity to SARS-CoV-2 lasts an average of three months for non-hospitalized individuals, a year for hospitalized individuals, and the effective reproduction number after lockdown ends is 1.2 (our worst-case scenario), we find that the secondary peak occurs in winter 2020 with a daily maximum of 387 000 infectious individuals and 125 000 daily new cases; threefold greater than in a scenario with permanent immunity. Our models suggest that longitudinal serological surveys to determine if immunity in the population is waning will be most informative when sampling takes place from the end of the lockdown in June until autumn 2020. After this period, the proportion of the population with antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 is expected to increase due to the secondary wave. Overall, our analysis presents considerations for policy makers on the longer-term dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 in the UK and suggests that strategies designed to achieve herd immunity may lead to repeated waves of infection as immunity to reinfection is not permanent. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Modelling that shaped the early COVID-19 pandemic response in the UK’.
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影响因子：
56.9
作者：
Britton, Tom;Ball, Frank;Trapman, Pieter
通讯作者：
Trapman, Pieter
影响因子：
82.9
作者：
He, Xi;Lau, Eric H. Y.;Leung, Gabriel M.
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Leung, Gabriel M.
影响因子：
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作者：
Jarvis, Christopher I.;Van Zandvoort, Kevin;Edmunds, W. John
通讯作者：
Edmunds, W. John
DOI：
10.1126/science.abf2946
发表时间：
2021-02-12
期刊：
Science (New York, N.Y.)
影响因子：
--
作者：
du Plessis L;McCrone JT;Zarebski AE;Hill V;Ruis C;Gutierrez B;Raghwani J;Ashworth J;Colquhoun R;Connor TR;Faria NR;Jackson B;Loman NJ;O'Toole Á;Nicholls SM;Parag KV;Scher E;Vasylyeva TI;Volz EM;Watts A;Bogoch II;Khan K;COVID-19 Genomics UK (COG-UK) Consortium;Aanensen DM;Kraemer MUG;Rambaut A;Pybus OG
通讯作者：
Pybus OG
影响因子：
2
作者：
Gomes, MGM;White, LJ;Medley, GF
通讯作者：
Medley, GF