Underreported coal in statistics: A survey-based solid fuel consumption and emission inventory for the rural residential sector in China
Underreported coal in statistics: A survey-based solid fuel consumption and emission inventory for the rural residential sector in China
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统计中漏报的煤炭：基于调查的中国农村居民生活固体燃料消耗和排放清单
DOI：
10.1016/j.apenergy.2018.11.043
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发表时间：
2019-02
期刊：
影响因子：
11.2
通讯作者：
He Kebin
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Peng Liqun;Zhang Qiang;Yao Zhiliang;Mauzerall Denise L.;Kang Sicong;Du Zhenyu;Zheng Yixuan;Xue Tao;He Kebin
由于缺乏可靠的统计数据，住宅使用的固体燃料消耗和相关排放量非常不确定。在这项研究中，我们估计固体燃料的消耗和排放量从农村住宅部门在中国使用的数据，从一个新的全国性的实地调查。我们于2010年对中国183个县的17，000个农村居民家庭进行了实地调查，以获得固体燃料消费和使用模式的数据。然后，我们开发了一个广义加性模型（GAM），建立固体燃料消耗量和加热度日（HDD），收入，煤炭产量，煤炭价格和植被覆盖度之间的关系，分别。应用广义相对模型对中国农村居民固体燃料消费进行了测算。我们估计，2010年中国农村家庭用于取暖和做饭的煤炭消耗量为179.8兆吨，比官方能源统计数据高出62%。我们发现，华北平原大量农村居民用煤在能源统计中被漏报。例如，2010年河北省（中国污染最严重的省份之一）农村家庭的煤炭消费量估计为20.8Tg，是政府统计数据的两倍。相比之下，我们发现模拟的全国作物残留物（用作燃料）总消费量比报告的数据低50%。结合调查的基础数据、GAM和文献中的排放因子，我们估计2010年中国农村居民部门的排放量为：3.3Tg PM2.5、0.6Tg BC、1.2Tg OC、2.1Tg VOC、2.3Tg SO2、0.4Tg NOx、43.6Tg CO和727.2Tg CO2，分别占全国PM2.5、BC、OC总量的29%、35%、38%和26%，一氧化碳排放量分别。这项工作表明，中国目前的排放清单可能低估了农村居民家庭燃煤的排放量，因为官方统计数据中缺少煤炭消费量，特别是污染严重的华北平原地区。人均收入似乎是造成调查数据与官方数据之间差异的驱动因素。高收入居民更喜欢商业能源，人均燃油消耗量高于低收入居民。因此，农村居民燃煤对区域空气污染的贡献可能比以前确定的大贡献更大。
Solid fuel consumption and associated emissions from residential use are highly uncertain due to a lack of reliable statistics. In this study, we estimate solid fuel consumption and emissions from the rural residential sector in China by using data collected from a new nationwide field survey. We conducted a field survey in 2010 which covered ∼17,000 rural residential households in 183 counties in China, to obtain data for solid fuel consumption and use patterns. We then developed a Generalized Additive Model (GAM) to establish the relationship between solid fuel consumption and heating degree days (HDD), income, coal production, coal price, and vegetation coverage, respectively. The GAM was used to estimate solid fuel consumption in rural households in China at the county level. We estimated that, in 2010, 179.8Tg of coal were consumed in Chinese rural households for heating and cooking, which is 62% higher than that reported in official energy statistics. We found that large quantities of rural residential coal consumption in the North China Plain were underreported in energy statistics. For instance, estimated coal consumption in rural households in Hebei (one of most polluted provinces in China) was 20.8Tg in 2010, which is twice as high as government statistics indicate. In contrast, modeled national total consumption of crop residues (used as fuels) we found to be ∼50% lower than reported data. Combining the underlying data from the survey, the GAM and emission factors from literature, we estimate emissions from China’s rural residential sector in 2010 to be: 3.3Tg PM2.5, 0.6Tg BC, 1.2Tg OC, 2.1Tg VOC, 2.3Tg SO2, 0.4Tg NOx, 43.6Tg CO and 727.2Tg CO2, contributing to 29%, 35%, 38% and 26% of national total PM2.5, BC, OC, and CO emissions respectively. This work reveals that current emission inventories in China likely underestimate emissions from coal combustion in rural residential households due to missing coal consumption in official statistics, especially for the heavily polluted North China Plain (NCP) region. Per capita income appears to be the driving factor that results in the difference between surveyed data and official data. Residents with high income prefer commercial energy and have a higher per capita fuel consumption than lower income residents. Therefore, rural residential coal combustion may contribute even more to regional air pollution than the large contributions previously identified.
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DOI：
10.1080/10473289.2001.10464293
发表时间：
2001-04-01
影响因子：
2.7
作者：
Ge, S;Bai, ZP;Zhang, JF
通讯作者：
Zhang, JF
影响因子：
11.4
作者：
Chandra Venkataraman;G. Uma Maheswara Rao
通讯作者：
Chandra Venkataraman;G. Uma Maheswara Rao
影响因子：
11.4
作者：
Shen, Guofeng;Yang, Yifeng;Wang, Wei;Tao, Shu;Zhu, Chen;Min, Yujia;Xue, Miao;Ding, Junnan;Wang, Bin;Wang, Rong;Shen, Huizhong;Li, Wei;Wang, Xilong;Russell, Armistead G.
通讯作者：
Russell, Armistead G.
影响因子：
8.9
作者：
Cai, Siyi;Li, Qing;Hao, Jiming
通讯作者：
Hao, Jiming
影响因子：
10.4
作者：
Bonjour S;Adair-Rohani H;Wolf J;Bruce NG;Mehta S;Prüss-Ustün A;Lahiff M;Rehfuess EA;Mishra V;Smith KR
通讯作者：
Smith KR