Spatiotemporal Risk of Bacillary Dysentery and Sensitivity to Meteorological Factors in Hunan Province, China.
Spatiotemporal Risk of Bacillary Dysentery and Sensitivity to Meteorological Factors in Hunan Province, China.
复制标题
湖南省细菌性痢疾时空风险及对气象因素的敏感性
DOI：
10.3390/ijerph15010047
复制
发表时间：
2017-12-29
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Liang J
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Xu C;Xiao G;Wang J;Zhang X;Liang J
Bacillary dysentery remains a public health concern in the world. Hunan Province is one of the provinces having the highest risk of bacillary dysentery in China, however, the spatial-temporal distribution, variation of bacillary dysentery and sensitivity to meteorological factors in there are unclear. In this paper, a Bayesian space-time hierarchical model (BSTHM) was used to detect space-time variation, and effects of meteorological factors between 2010 and 2015. The risk of bacillary dysentery showed apparent spatial-temporal heterogeneity. The highest risk occurred in the summer season. Economically undeveloped mountainous areas in the west and south of the province had the highest incidence rates. Twenty three (18.9%) and 20 (16.4%) counties were identified as hot and cold spots, respectively. Among the hotspots, 11 counties (47.8%) exhibited a rapidly decreasing trend, suggesting they may become low-risk areas in the future. Of the cold spot counties, six (30%) showed a slowly decreasing trend, and may have a higher risk in the future. Among meteorological factors, air temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed all played a significant role in the spatial-temporal distribution of bacillary dysentery risk. These findings can contribute to the implementation of an early warning system for controlling and preventing bacillary dysentery.
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影响因子：
3.7
作者：
Tang F;Cheng Y;Bao C;Hu J;Liu W;Liang Q;Wu Y;Norris J;Peng Z;Yu R;Shen H;Chen F
通讯作者：
Chen F
影响因子：
2.3
作者：
Li, G.;Haining, R.;Best, N.
通讯作者：
Best, N.
影响因子：
4.2
作者：
Tam, CC;Rodrigues, LC;Hajat, S
通讯作者：
Hajat, S
影响因子：
10.4
作者：
Kelly-Hope LA;Alonso WJ;Thiem VD;Canh DG;Anh DD;Lee H;Miller MA
通讯作者：
Miller MA
DOI：
10.3390/ijerph10041202
发表时间：
2013-03-26
影响因子：
--
作者：
Alexander KA;Carzolio M;Goodin D;Vance E
通讯作者：
Vance E