Rarity, geography, and plant exposure to global change in the California Floristic Province
Rarity, geography, and plant exposure to global change in the California Floristic Province
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加州植物区的稀有性、地理和植物对全球变化的暴露程度
DOI：
10.1111/geb.13618
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发表时间：
2023
影响因子：
6.4
通讯作者：
Franklin, Janet
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Rose, Miranda Brooke;Velazco, Santiago José;Regan, Helen M.;Franklin, Janet
物种分布的稀有性和地理方面介导了它们对全球变化的脆弱性。我们探讨物种的稀有性和地理之间的关系，并暴露于气候和土地利用变化的生物多样性hotspots.LocationCalifornia，USAAxon：106陆生plantsMethods：我们估计了四个稀有性状：范围大小，生态位宽度，栖息地斑块数量，斑块隔离;和三个地理性状：平均海拔，地形异质性，距离海岸。我们使用物种分布模型来测量物种暴露-预测在当前占用的栖息地内持续栖息地适宜性的变化-在气候和土地利用变化情景下。使用回归模型，决策树模型，方差分割，我们评估了物种的稀有性，地理，暴露于气候和土地利用changes.ResultsRarity，地理和温室气体排放情景解释>35%的方差在气候变化暴露和>61%的土地利用变化暴露之间的关系。虽然稀有特征（范围大小和栖息地斑块数）是解释物种暴露于气候变化、地理特征（海拔和地形异质性）与物种对土地利用变化的暴露有更强的相关性。主要结论在其分布范围内具有有限范围大小和低地形异质性的物种预计最容易受到气候变化的影响，而低海拔物种最容易因土地利用变化而丧失生境。然而，即使是一些分布广泛的物种，如果它们位于地理脆弱地区，预计也会因气候和土地利用变化而失去70%以上的现有适宜栖息地，这强调了在脆弱性评估中需要考虑物种的稀有特性和地理位置。
AimRarity and geographic aspects of species’ distributions mediate their vulnerability to global change. We explore the relationships between species’ rarity and geography and their exposure to climate and land use change in a biodiversity hotspot.LocationCalifornia, USATaxon: 106 terrestrial plantsMethods: We estimated four rarity traits: range size, niche breadth, number of habitat patches, and patch isolation; and three geographic traits: mean elevation, topographic heterogeneity, and distance to coast. We used species distribution models to measure species exposure – predicted change in continuous habitat suitability within currently occupied habitat –under climate and land use change scenarios. Using regression models, decision-tree models, and variance partitioning, we assessed the relationships between species’ rarity, geography, and exposure to climate and land use change.ResultsRarity, geography, and greenhouse gas emissions scenario explained >35% of variance in climate change exposure and >61% for land use change exposure. While rarity traits (range size and number of habitat patches) were most important for explaining species’ exposure to climate change, geographic traits (elevation and topographic heterogeneity) were more strongly associated with species’ exposure to land use change.Main conclusionsSpecies with restricted range sizes and low topographic heterogeneity across their distributions were predicted to be the most exposed to climate change, while species at low elevations were the most exposed to habitat loss via land use change. However, even some broadly distributed species were projected to lose >70% of their currently suitable habitat due to climate and land use change if they are in geographically vulnerable areas, emphasizing the need to consider both species’ rarity traits and geography in vulnerability assessments.
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加州特有植物的空间格局
影响因子：
10
作者：
James H. Thorne;J. Viers;J. Price;David M. Stoms
通讯作者：
David M. Stoms
影响因子：
10.3
作者：
Ackerly, David D.;Kling, Matthew M.;Flint, Lorraine E.
通讯作者：
Flint, Lorraine E.
保护规划中物种分布模型的过度预测：一个仍然被忽视但影响很大的问题
DOI：
--
发表时间：
2020
期刊：
影响因子：
--
作者：
S. J. Velazco;Bruno R. Ribeiro;L. M. O. Laureto;P. D. M. Júnior
通讯作者：
P. D. M. Júnior
影响因子：
5.2
作者：
McCullough, Ian M.;Davis, Frank W.;Franklin, Janet
通讯作者：
Franklin, Janet
影响因子：
6.4
作者：
Staude, Ingmar R.;Navarro, Laetitia M.;Pereira, Henrique M.
通讯作者：
Pereira, Henrique M.