Reliability Modeling of Infrastructure Load-Sharing Systems With Workload Adjustment
Reliability Modeling of Infrastructure Load-Sharing Systems With Workload Adjustment
复制标题
具有工作负载调整的基础设施负载共享系统的可靠性建模
DOI：
10.1109/tr.2019.2900845
复制
发表时间：
2019-03
影响因子：
5.9
通讯作者：
Lesley Walls
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Qiuzhuang Sun;Zhi-Sheng Ye;Matthew Revie;Lesley Walls
出于需要支持有效的资产管理的基础设施系统，本文提出了一种新的可靠性模型的负载共享系统，运营商可以调整组件的工作负载，以平衡系统的退化。操作员干预的影响，结合其他系统的复杂性，使建模的可靠性有趣和具有挑战性。我们首先开发成本建模的负载共享系统，在分析时经历了运营服务。系统更换过程被建模为延迟更新过程，并推导出系统的期望运行成本。提出了一种计算代价的数值算法，其误差界为O（n^{-1}）阶。接下来，我们扩展建模，以考虑位于基础设施网络中不同站点的多个异构系统。这里的异质性指的是作业环境和操作员行动方面可能存在的跨站点差异。当异质性是可观察的，我们作为协变量建模;否则，我们作为随机效应建模。统计推断方法开发的模型。一个使用来自自来水公司的真实的数据的示例说明了给定参数选择的逻辑模型行为，并展示了分析如何为资产管理提供信息。
Motivated by the need to support effective asset management of infrastructure systems, this paper presents a novel reliability model for a load-sharing system where the operator can adjust component work load to balance system degradation. The operator-intervention effect, combined with other system complexities, makes modeling reliability interesting and challenging. We first develop cost modeling for a load-sharing system that has experienced operational service at the time of analysis. The system replacement process is modeled as a delayed renewal process for which the expected operational cost of the system is derived. A numerical algorithm is proposed to compute the cost, and the error bound is shown to be of order $O(n^{-1})$. Next, we extend modeling to consider multiple heterogeneous systems located at different sites within the infrastructure network. Heterogeneities here refer to possible cross-site differences in the operating environments and the operators’ actions. When the heterogeneities are observable, we model as covariates; otherwise, we model as random effects. Statistical inference methods are developed for the proposed models. An example using real data from a water utility illustrates the logical model behavior given parameter choices as well as showing how analysis might inform asset management.
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