Assessing the Consequences of Natural Disasters on Production Networks: A Disaggregated Approach
Assessing the Consequences of Natural Disasters on Production Networks: A Disaggregated Approach
复制标题
评估自然灾害对生产网络的影响：分类方法
DOI：
10.2139/ssrn.1318335
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发表时间：
2008
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
S. Hallegatte
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Fanny Henriet;S. Hallegatte
本文提出了一个研究自然灾害后果的框架。这一框架的基础是，通过将区域经济表示为生产单位网络，在企业一级分解投入产出表。这一框架考虑了(1)企业生产能力的限制；(2)通过投入短缺的正向传播；(3)通过需求的减少而向后传播。适应性行为被包括在内，企业有可能替换失败的供应商，从而导致网络结构的变化。这一框架表明，灾害成本取决于损失的异质性和受影响经济网络的结构。该模型再现了经济崩溃，表明它可能有助于理解有限后果灾难和导致系统性崩溃的灾难之间的区别。
This article proposes a framework to investigate the consequences of natural disasters. This framework is based on the disaggregation of Input-Output tables at the business level, through the representation of the regional economy as a network of production units. This framework accounts for (i) limits in business production capacity; (ii) forward propagations through input shortages; and (iii) backward propagations through decreases in demand. Adaptive behaviors are included, with the possibility for businesses to replace failed suppliers, entailing changes in the network structure. This framework suggests that disaster costs depend on the heterogeneity of losses and on the structure of the affected economic network. The model reproduces economic collapse, suggesting that it may help understand the difference between limited-consequence disasters and disasters leading to systemic failure.
影响因子：
3
作者：
Rose, A;Liao, SY
通讯作者：
Liao, SY