The Skill of ECMWF Precipitation and Temperature Predictions in the Danube Basin as Forcings of Hydrological Models
The Skill of ECMWF Precipitation and Temperature Predictions in the Danube Basin as Forcings of Hydrological Models
复制标题
ECMWF多瑙河流域降水和气温预报作为水文模型强迫的技巧
DOI：
10.1175/2008waf2222120.1
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发表时间：
2009
影响因子：
2.9
通讯作者：
R. Buizza
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
F. Pappenberger;R. Buizza
本文对ECMWF预报在水文应用中的适用性进行了评价。这项研究的重点是三个空间尺度：多瑙河上游（这是布拉迪斯拉发，斯洛伐克的上游），整个多瑙河流域，整个欧洲。两个变量，2米的温度和总降水量，进行了分析。分析表明，降水预报在很大程度上遵循观测模式。虽然降水量往往被低估，但预测和观测到的降水量和温度之间的峰值时间是好的。汇水规模对技能得分有显著影响。小流域表现出较大的差异以及较大的极端。水平衡分析表明，在过去的几年里，集合平均值低估了10%，高分辨率预报高估了。降水和温度预测可精确到5 - 7天。在较长时间范围内积累的预测比在短时间内积累的预测要熟练得多。
In this paper the suitability of ECMWF forecasts for hydrological applications is evaluated. This study focuses on three spatial scales: the upper Danube (which is upstream of Bratislava, Slovakia), the entire Danube catchment, and the whole of Europe. Two variables, 2-m temperature and total precipitation, are analyzed. The analysis shows that precipitation forecasts follow largely in pattern the observations. The timing of the peaks between forecasted and observed precipitation and temperature is good although precipitation amounts are often underestimated. The catchment scale influences the skill scores significantly. Small catchments exhibit a larger variance as well as larger extremes. A water balance analysis suggest a 10% underestimation by the ensemble mean and an overestimation by the high-resolution forecast over the past few years. Precipitation and temperature predictions are skillful up to days 5‐7. Forecasts accumulated over a longer time frame are largely more skillful than forecasts accumulated over short time periods.
影响因子：
2.7
作者：
Cloke, Hannah L.;Pappenberger, Florian
通讯作者：
Pappenberger, Florian