The role of non-pharmaceutical interventions on influenza circulation during the COVID-19 pandemic in nine tropical Asian countries.
The role of non-pharmaceutical interventions on influenza circulation during the COVID-19 pandemic in nine tropical Asian countries.
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DOI：
10.1111/irv.12953
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发表时间：
2022-05
影响因子：
4.4
通讯作者：
Olsen SJ
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Davis WW;Mott JA;Olsen SJ
据报道，在新冠疫情期间全球流感传播率较低。我们探究了亚洲热带国家非药物干预措施（NPIs）与流感之间的关系。
利用世界卫生组织（WHO）2015年至2019年的监测数据以及世卫组织的交互应用程序，我们构建了2020年3月至2021年6月预期的季节性流感流行曲线，并将时间节点以及平均阳性率与观测数据进行了比较。我们使用多元回归来检验在预期的2020/21年流感流行前4周的有序非药物干预措施数据（来自牛津严格指数）之间的关联，并给出调整后的发病率比（IRR）或相对比例比（RPR）以及95%置信区间（CI）。
来自9个国家的数据预测了18次季节性流行；其中7次被观测到。5次流行开始的时间比预期晚6 - 24周，并且所有流行持续时间都比预期短4 - 21周。5次流行的最高峰值（阳性率）较低，且除1次外所有流行的平均阳性率都低于预期。所有国家都实施了非药物干预措施。学校关闭程度每提高一级，流感流行的风险就降低43%（IRR = 0.57，CI：0.34，0.95）。取消公共活动程度每提高一级，整个季节的平均阳性率就降低44%（RPR = 0.56，CI：0.39，0.82），限制国内人员流动程度每提高一级，平均阳性率就降低41%（RPR = 0.59，CI：0.36，0.96）。其他非药物干预措施与变化无关。
在9个国家中，2020/21年的季节性流行比预期延迟、持续时间更短且强度更低。尽管分层的非药物干预措施很难区分开来，但在流感传播之前关闭学校、取消公共活动以及限制国内人员流动似乎减少了传播。
Low global influenza circulation was reported during the coronavirus‐19 pandemic. We explored relationships between non‐pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and influenza in tropical Asian countries. Using World Health Organization (WHO) surveillance data from 2015 to 2019 and the WHO shiny app, we constructed expected seasonal influenza epidemic curves from March 2020 to June 2021 and compared the timing, and average percent positivity with observed data. We used multivariate regression to test associations between ordinal NPI data (from the Oxford Stringency Index) 4 weeks before the expected 2020/21 epidemics and present adjusted incidence rate ratio (IRR) or relative proportion ratio (RPR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI). Data from nine countries predicted 18 seasonal epidemics; seven were observed. Five started 6–24 weeks later, and all were 4–21 weeks shorter than expected. Five epidemics had lower maximum peak values (percent positivity), and all but one had lower average percent positivity than expected. All countries implemented NPIs. Each increased level of school closure reduced risk of an epidemic by 43% (IRR = 0.57, CI: 0.34, 0.95). Each increased level of canceling public events reduced the average percent positivity across the season by 44% (RPR = 0.56, CI: 0.39, 0.82) and each increased level in restricting internal movements reduced it by 41% (RPR = 0.59, CI: 0.36, 0.96). Other NPIs were not associated with changes. Among nine countries, the 2020/21 seasonal epidemics were delayed, shorter, and less intense than expected. Although layered NPIs were difficult to tease apart, school closings, canceling public events, and restricting internal movements before influenza circulation seemed to reduce transmission.
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影响因子：
4.4
作者：
Vega T;Lozano JE;Meerhoff T;Snacken R;Mott J;Ortiz de Lejarazu R;Nunes B
通讯作者：
Nunes B
DOI：
10.14740/jocmr4450
发表时间：
2021-03
期刊：
Journal of clinical medicine research
影响因子：
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作者：
Hayashi T;Konishi I
通讯作者：
Konishi I
影响因子：
4.4
作者：
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通讯作者：
Chotipitayasunondh T
影响因子：
6.7
作者：
Geoghegan JL;Saavedra AF;Duchêne S;Sullivan S;Barr I;Holmes EC
通讯作者：
Holmes EC
影响因子：
4.5
作者：
Shi P;Keskinocak P;Swann JL;Lee BY
通讯作者：
Lee BY