How fast could HIV change gene frequencies in the human population?
How fast could HIV change gene frequencies in the human population?
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DOI：
10.1098/rspb.2009.2073
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发表时间：
2010-07-07
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
McLean AR
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Cromer D;Wolinsky SM;McLean AR
传染病有可能成为对受其影响的人群进行遗传选择的强大力量。人类免疫缺陷病毒（HIV）是施加这种遗传选择的主要候选者，这是由于其感染的大量人以及不同人类白细胞抗原（HLA）类型对HIV疾病进展的不同易感性。我们已经构建了一个区分这些HLA类型的HIV感染模型，并使用报告的HIV感染者数量估计值和进展为获得性免疫缺陷综合征（AIDS）的不同速率来提供HIV对人类施加重大遗传变化所需时间长度的下限估计。我们发现，与目前影响撒哈拉以南非洲的艾滋病毒感染类似的艾滋病毒感染，不可能使迅速发病的个人比例下降3%以上。在艾滋病毒出现400年之前，这种感染不太可能引起重大的遗传变化（定义为快速进展的个体比例下降到其初始比例的50%以下）。然而，在受影响非常严重的人群中，有机会在50年后观察到这种重大的遗传变化。
Infectious diseases have the potential to act as strong forces for genetic selection on the populations they affect. Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) is a prime candidate to impose such genetic selection owing to the vast number of people it infects and the varying susceptibility of different human leucocyte antigen (HLA) types to HIV disease progression. We have constructed a model of HIV infection that differentiates between these HLA types, and have used reported estimates of the number of people infected with HIV and the different rates of progression to acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) to provide a lower bound estimate on the length of time it would take for HIV to impose major genetic change in humans. We find that an HIV infection similar to that currently affecting sub-Saharan Africa could not yet have caused more than a 3 per cent decrease in the proportion of individuals who progress quickly to disease. Such an infection is unlikely to cause major genetic change (defined as a decrease in the proportion of quickly progressing individuals to under 50 per cent of their starting proportion) until 400 years have passed since HIV emergence. However, in very severely affected populations, there is a chance of observing such major genetic changes after another 50 years.
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