Assessment of drought risk using multi-sensor drought indices and vulnerability factors: a case study of semi-arid region in Iran
Assessment of drought risk using multi-sensor drought indices and vulnerability factors: a case study of semi-arid region in Iran
复制标题
利用多传感器干旱指数和脆弱性因子评估干旱风险：以伊朗半干旱地区为例
DOI：
10.1007/s12517-024-11883-x
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发表时间：
2024
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
C. B. Komaki
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Zahedeh Heidarizadi;Majid Ownegh;C. B. Komaki
干旱是一种令人不快的气候现象，直接影响到人类社会的不同层面。为了提高人们的防范意识，选择最佳的管理决策，需要设计和开发一种综合的方法来更有效地控制这一现象，并提供早期预警。本研究使用中分辨率成像光谱仪（MODIS）和数字高程模型（DEM）的12个遥感指数来监测2000-2018年生长季的干旱。标准化降水指数（SPI）与1至12个月的时间尺度被用作参考数据。一种机器学习的方法调制的13个指标和SPI与不同的时间尺度之间的关系。利用随机森林技术构建了伊拉姆省干旱综合监测模型。验证数据的基础上提供相对土壤湿度，标准化降水蒸散指数（SPEI），作物产量数据。随机森林对SPI的预测具有良好的适用性（R2= 0.88）。在下一步骤中，干旱灾害指数（DHI）的基础上产生的干旱发生的概率使用综合干旱模型在前一步。利用7个社会经济指标计算了干旱脆弱性指数（DVI）。最后，将伊拉姆省的干旱风险指数（DRI）与干旱风险指数（DVI）相乘，得到了该省的干旱风险指数。DRI图的结果表明，2个县处于非常高的干旱风险，4个县处于高风险，4个县处于中等和低风险的干旱。研究结果为区域干旱评价提供了一种综合方法。同样基于该模型，可以识别出具有高脆弱性的县，以提供及时的管理方案，以帮助改善情况。
Drought is an unpleasant climatic phenomenon that directly impacts the different dimensions of human societies. To pry-awareness and choice optimum management decision, design and development of an integrated approach is needed to control this phenomenon more effectively and provide early warnings. This study used twelve remotely sensed indices of the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and digital elevation model (DEM) to monitor drought during the 2000–2018 growing season. Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) with 1 to 12 months time scales was used as reference data. A machine learning approach modulated the relations between thirteen indices and SPI with different time scales. The random forest technique was used to construct a comprehensive drought monitoring model in Ilam Province. Validation data were provided based on relative soil moisture, Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), and crop yield data. It was observed that random forest produced good applicability (R2= 0.88) for SPI prediction. In the next step, the Drought Hazard Index (DHI) was generated based on the probability occurrences of drought using the comprehensive drought model made in the previous step. The Drought Vulnerability Index (DVI) was calculated by using 7 socioeconomic indices. Finally, the Drought Risk Index (DRI) was obtained by multiplying DHI and DVI for Ilam province. The result of the DRI map showed that two counties are at very high risk of drought, 4 counties are at high risk, and 4 counties are at moderate and low risk of drought. Overall, the result of our study provides a comprehensive method for the assessment of regional drought. Also based on this model, counties with high vulnerability can be identified to provide timely management programs to help improve the situation.
影响因子：
2.6
作者：
Wilhite, D. A.;Glantz, M. H.
通讯作者：
Glantz, M. H.