The relationship among probabilistic, deterministic and potential skills in predicting the ENSO for the past 161 years
The relationship among probabilistic, deterministic and potential skills in predicting the ENSO for the past 161 years
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过去161年预测ENSO的概率性、确定性和潜在技能之间的关系
DOI：
10.1007/s00382-019-04967-y
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发表时间：
2019-12
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Zhang Banglin
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Liu Ting;Youmin Tang;Yang Dejian;Cheng Yanjie;Song Xunshu;Hou Zhaolu;Shen Zheqi;Gao Yanqiu;Wu Yanlin;Li Xiaojin;Zhang Banglin
在此，我们深入探讨了确定性预测技能、概率预测技能和潜在可预测性之间的关系。这是通过理论分析，特别是通过对1856年至2016年161年长期整体ENSO后播的分析实现的。首先，通过理论分析推导出确定性预测技巧与概率预测技巧之间的非线性单调关系，并利用集合后验进行检验和验证。进一步探讨了在完美模型假设和实际模型情景下，潜在可预测性与确定性预测技能之间的协变性。在此基础上，从ENSO预测实践和理论两方面探讨了潜在可预测性与概率预测技能之间的关系。研究结果表明，这三种测度之间存在非线性单调关系。从确定性度量和概率框架两方面来看，潜在的可预测性被认为是实际预测技能的一个很好的指标。本文所确定的关系对进行可预测性研究具有相当重要的实际意义，为研究预测不确定性提供了一种廉价而适度的方法，而不需要昂贵的集成实验。
Here, we explored in depth the relationship among the deterministic prediction skill, the probabilistic prediction skill and the potential predictability. This was achieved by theoretical analyses and, in particular, by an analysis of long-term ensemble ENSO hindcast over 161 years from 1856 to 2016. First, a nonlinear monotonic relationship between the deterministic prediction skill and the probabilistic prediction skill, derived by theoretical analysis, was examined and validated using the ensemble hindcast. Further, the co-variability between the potential predictability and the deterministic prediction skill was explored in both perfect model assumption and actual model scenario. On these bases, we investigated the relationship between the potential predictability and probabilistic prediction skill from both the practice of ENSO forecast and theoretical perspective. The results of the study indicate that there are nonlinear monotonic relationships among these three kinds of measures. The potential predictability is considered to be a good indicator for the actual prediction skill in terms of both the deterministic measures and the probabilistic framework. The relationships identified here exhibit considerable significant practical sense to conduct predictability researches, which provide an inexpensive and moderate approach for inquiring prediction uncertainties without the requirement of costly ensemble experiments.
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影响因子：
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作者：
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通讯作者：
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影响因子：
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DOI：
10.1016/b978-0-12-812372-0.00001-7
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