Historical Patterns of Heavy Rainfall Event and Deep-Seated Rapid Landslide Occurrence in Japan: Insight for Effects of Climate Change on Landslide Occurrence
Historical Patterns of Heavy Rainfall Event and Deep-Seated Rapid Landslide Occurrence in Japan: Insight for Effects of Climate Change on Landslide Occurrence
复制标题
日本强降雨事件和深层快速滑坡发生的历史模式：洞察气候变化对滑坡发生的影响
DOI：
10.1007/978-3-319-53485-5_29
复制
发表时间：
2017
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
A. Okamoto
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
T. Uchida;W. Sakurai;A. Okamoto
为了弄清气候变化对深层快速滑坡频率的影响，我们通过文献检索汇编了自1600年以来的约300个滑坡信息和自1901年以来的日本暴雨事件的频率。近120年来，深层快速滑坡频次较大。然而，深层快速滑坡的发生频率并不随时间的推移而单调增加。深层快速滑坡的发生频率呈暂时性变化，并呈现年代际格局。在过去的120多年里，存在三个深部快速滑坡的高发期。1901年以来，深部快速滑坡的年代际频次与暴雨的年代际频次基本一致。暴雨高发期的年均深层快速滑坡数约为低频期的6~8倍。因此，过去暴雨事件频次的时间变化已经引起了深层快速滑坡频次的时间变化，这表明如果未来由于气候变化而导致暴雨事件频次增加，深层快速滑坡频次可能比过去更大。
To clarify effects of climate change on deep-seated rapid landslide frequency, we compiled about 300 landslides information through a literature search since 1600 and the frequency of heavy rainfall event since 1901 in Japan. In the last 120 years, the deep-seated rapid landslide frequency was relatively large. However, the frequency of deep-seated rapid landslide did not increase monotonically with time. The frequency of deep-seated rapid landslide temporary varied and showed decadal-scale patterns. In the last 120 years, three periods of high frequency of deep-seated rapid landslide were existed. Since 1901, the decadal-scale deep-seated rapid landslide frequency well agreed with the decadal-scale heavy rainfall frequency. Mean annual number of deep-seated rapid landslides in the period of high frequency of heavy rainfall events were around 6–8 times larger than those of the low frequency periods. So, the past temporal change of heavy rainfall event frequency already induced temporal change of deep-seated rapid landslide frequency, suggesting that if in future, the heavy rainfall event frequency will increase due to the climate change, the deep-seated rapid landslide frequency might be larger than that in the past.
影响因子：
5.8
作者：
H. Saito;O. Korup;T. Uchida;Shinsaku Hayashi;T. Oguchi
通讯作者：
H. Saito;O. Korup;T. Uchida;Shinsaku Hayashi;T. Oguchi