Estimation and Evaluation of Future Demand and Supply of Healthcare Services Based on a Patient Access Area Model.
Estimation and Evaluation of Future Demand and Supply of Healthcare Services Based on a Patient Access Area Model.
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DOI：
10.3390/ijerph14111367
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发表时间：
2017-11-10
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Takabayashi K
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Doi S;Ide H;Takeuchi K;Fujita S;Takabayashi K
医疗服务提供者的可及性、数量和质量对国民健康至关重要。在这项研究中，我们将重点放在地理可达性上，以估计和评估未来医疗服务的需求和供应。我们构建了一个名为患者访问区域模型(PAAM)的模拟模型，该模型使用地理信息系统(GIS)来模拟患者访问医疗服务机构的时间。使用该模型，为了评估未来小地区医疗服务的供需平衡，我们估计了每个地区每五年的住院人数，并将其与每个地区一小时车程内的医院床位数量进行比较。在一项以东京都为目标区域的实验中，当我们假设医院床位利用率为80%时，预计2030年将有超过7.8万名住院患者得不到住院治疗。然而，如果我们将住院率和平均住院时间降低10%，这个数字就会减少。使用这个模型，可以就应该采取什么行动以及在什么时候防止医疗保健需求的急剧增加提出建议。这种方法可以帮助规划医疗服务中的地理资源分配，以制定医疗保健政策。
Accessibility to healthcare service providers, the quantity, and the quality of them are important for national health. In this study, we focused on geographic accessibility to estimate and evaluate future demand and supply of healthcare services. We constructed a simulation model called the patient access area model (PAAM), which simulates patients’ access time to healthcare service institutions using a geographic information system (GIS). Using this model, to evaluate the balance of future healthcare services demand and supply in small areas, we estimated the number of inpatients every five years in each area and compared it with the number of hospital beds within a one-hour drive from each area. In an experiment with the Tokyo metropolitan area as a target area, when we assumed hospital bed availability to be 80%, it was predicted that over 78,000 inpatients would not receive inpatient care in 2030. However, this number would decrease if we lowered the rate of inpatient care by 10% and the average length of the hospital stay. Using this model, recommendations can be made regarding what action should be undertaken and by when to prevent a dramatic increase in healthcare demand. This method can help plan the geographical resource allocation in healthcare services for healthcare policy.
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影响因子：
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作者：
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通讯作者：
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DOI：
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