Excess mortality from COVID-19: weekly excess death rates by age and sex for Sweden and its most affected region.
Excess mortality from COVID-19: weekly excess death rates by age and sex for Sweden and its most affected region.
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DOI：
10.1093/eurpub/ckaa218
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发表时间：
2021-02-01
影响因子：
4.4
通讯作者：
Ebeling M
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Modig K;Ahlbom A;Ebeling M
瑞典是全球人均COVID-19死亡人数最高的国家之一。然而，绝对死亡人数可能会产生误导。估计按年龄和性别分列的死亡率是必要的，以便解释潜在的人口结构。此外，由于难以确定死亡原因，应估计出多出的全因死亡率，以评估该流行病的总体负担。我们的目标是通过估计2020年和之前5年期间按年龄和性别分列的每周死亡率，更准确地估计瑞典以及受影响最严重的斯德哥尔摩地区因COVID-19造成的超额死亡率。在瑞典出现首例确诊病例后的八周内，60岁以上所有年龄段的死亡率都高于往年。80岁以上的人受影响更大，75岁以下男性的超额死亡率高于女性。在老年人中，男性和女性的超额死亡率相似，瑞典的死亡率最高为1.5倍，斯德哥尔摩最高为3倍。与2019年相比，瑞典50岁的预期寿命下降了不到1年，斯德哥尔摩下降了1.5年。在大流行期间，老年人的超额死亡率一直很高，但这是因为年龄本身是一个预后因素还是合并症的代表，仍有待回答。仅在国家一级监测死亡人数可能会掩盖大流行病在区域一级的影响。
Sweden has one of the highest numbers of COVID-19 deaths per inhabitant globally. However, absolute death counts can be misleading. Estimating age- and sex-specific mortality rates is necessary in order to account for the underlying population structure. Furthermore, given the difficulty of assigning causes of death, excess all-cause mortality should be estimated to assess the overall burden of the pandemic. By estimating weekly age- and sex-specific death rates during 2020 and during the preceding 5 years, our aim is to get more accurate estimates of the excess mortality attributed to COVID-19 in Sweden, and in the most affected region Stockholm. Eight weeks after Sweden’s first confirmed case, the death rates at all ages above 60 were higher than for previous years. Persons above age 80 were disproportionally more affected, and men suffered greater excess mortality than women in ages up to 75 years. At older ages, the excess mortality was similar for men and women, with up to 1.5 times higher death rates for Sweden and up to 3 times higher for Stockholm. Life expectancy at age 50 declined by <1 year for Sweden and 1.5 years for Stockholm compared to 2019. The excess mortality has been high in older ages during the pandemic, but it remains to be answered if this is because of age itself being a prognostic factor or a proxy for comorbidity. Only monitoring deaths at a national level may hide the effect of the pandemic on the regional level.
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影响因子：
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作者：
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通讯作者：
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DOI：
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发表时间：
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