Model updating and seismic loss assessment for a portfolio of bridges
Model updating and seismic loss assessment for a portfolio of bridges
复制标题
桥梁组合的模型更新和地震损失评估
DOI：
10.1007/s10518-015-9850-y
复制
发表时间：
2016
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
G. Manfredi
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
A. Miano;F. Jalayer;Raffaele De Risi;A. Prota;G. Manfredi
意大利的大部分桥梁基础设施建于 20 世纪 60 年代和 70 年代，没有制定任何具体的抗震措施。因此，预计如果遭受重大地震事件，这些桥梁将非常脆弱。在这种背景下，快速准确地评估桥梁基础设施因此类事件而遭受的经济损失自然可以在地震发生后的应急管理中发挥至关重要的作用。本文重点关注意大利坎帕尼亚地区公路桥梁基础设施系统，展示了如何使用最先进的组合损失评估方法和现有数据来评估 1980 年伊尔皮尼亚地震造成的修复成本的概率分布。将桥梁组合的概率损失评估作为标准蒙特卡罗模拟问题有助于有效解决空间风险积分。本案例研究的具体特点之一是使用统计方法根据现有数据更新以下模型：(a) 地震动预测、(b) 脆弱性/脆弱性和 (c) 暴露/成本。据观察，有关地震动相关结构的替代假设可以显着影响直接经济损失的分布。此外，根据可用记录更新地面运动预测可以显着减少直接经济损失估计的离散度。
The majority of bridge infrastructures in Italy were built in the 1960s and ‘70s without any specific seismic provision being made. As a consequence, it is expected that these bridges would be highly vulnerable if subjected to a significant seismic event. Given this background, it is natural that the rapid and accurate assessment of economic losses incurred to the bridge infrastructure as a result of such an event could play a crucial role in emergency management in the immediate aftermath of an earthquake. Focusing on the infrastructure system of highway bridges in the Campania region in Italy, this paper demonstrates how both state-of-the-art methodologies in portfolio loss assessment and the available data can be used to assess the probability distribution of the repair costs incurred due to the 1980 Irpinia earthquake. Formulating a probabilistic loss assessment for a portfolio of bridges as a standard Monte Carlo simulation problem helps to resolve the spatial risk integral efficiently. One of the specific features of this case study is the use of statistical methods for updating models of: (a) ground motion predictions, (b) vulnerability/fragility and (c) exposure/costs, based on the available data. It has been observed that alternative hypotheses concerning the ground motion correlation structure can significantly affect the distribution of direct economic losses. Furthermore, updating the ground motion prediction based on available recordings may significantly reduce the dispersion in the estimate of the direct economic losses.
影响因子：
4.5
作者：
V. Sokolov;F. Wenzel
通讯作者：
V. Sokolov;F. Wenzel