The hierarchical age-period-cohort model: Why does it find the results that it finds?
The hierarchical age-period-cohort model: Why does it find the results that it finds?
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DOI：
10.1007/s11135-017-0488-5
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发表时间：
2018
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Jones K
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Bell A;Jones K
层次年龄时期队列模型解决了年龄时期队列识别问题。但是，这是值得商榷的;模拟显示了该模型产生错误结果的情况，该模型的支持者反驳说，这些模拟与现实生活情景无关。本文超越了质疑HAPC模型是否有效，为什么它会产生这样的结果。我们认为，HAPC估计的结果，而不是独特的实质性的APC过程中发生的数据集，但主要是一个人工制品的数据结构，也就是说，收集数据的方式。如果收集的数据不同，产生的结果也会不同。这用模拟和真实的数据来说明，后者通过从Rheither等人（Soc Sci Med 69（10）：1439-1448）在他们的肥胖症HAPC研究中使用的国家健康访谈调查（NHIS）数据中获取各种样本来说明。当样本基于小范围的队列时，周期范围远大于队列范围，产生的结果与队列组跨越比周期更宽的范围时产生的结果非常不同，就像重复的横截面数据在结构上一样。该论文还讨论了HAPC模型的支持者对HAPC模型的最新辩护（Rheither等人，Soc Sci Med 145：125-128）。研究结果进一步支持了HAPC模型不能准确识别APC效应的观点，当出现周期或队列近线性趋势时，应谨慎使用。本文的在线版本（doi：10.1007/s11135-017-0488-5）包含补充材料，可供授权用户使用。
It is claimed the hierarchical-age–period–cohort (HAPC) model solves the age–period–cohort (APC) identification problem. However, this is debateable; simulations show situations where the model produces incorrect results, countered by proponents of the model arguing those simulations are not relevant to real-life scenarios. This paper moves beyond questioning whether the HAPC model works, to why it produces the results it does. We argue HAPC estimates are the result not of the distinctive substantive APC processes occurring in the dataset, but are primarily an artefact of the data structure—that is, the way the data has been collected. Were the data collected differently, the results produced would be different. This is illustrated both with simulations and real data, the latter by taking a variety of samples from the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) data used by Reither et al. (Soc Sci Med 69(10):1439–1448,) in their HAPC study of obesity. When a sample based on a small range of cohorts is taken, such that the period range is much greater than the cohort range, the results produced are very different to those produced when cohort groups span a much wider range than periods, as is structurally the case with repeated cross-sectional data. The paper also addresses the latest defence of the HAPC model by its proponents (Reither et al. in Soc Sci Med 145:125–128,). The results lend further support to the view that the HAPC model is not able to accurately discern APC effects, and should be used with caution when there appear to be period or cohort near-linear trends. The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s11135-017-0488-5) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
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