Is the “pollution haven hypothesis” valid for China’s carbon trading system? A re-examination based on inter-provincial carbon emission transfer

Is the “pollution haven hypothesis” valid for China’s carbon trading system? A re-examination based on inter-provincial carbon emission transfer
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“污染天堂假说”对于中国的碳交易体系是否有效?

DOI:
10.1007/s11356-022-18737-7
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发表时间:
2022-02
影响因子:
5.8
通讯作者:
Yuanyuan Li
Yuanyuan Li
中科院分区:
环境科学与生态学3区
文献类型:
--
作者:
Xin Nie;Zhoupeng Chen;Han Wang;Jianxian Wu;Xingyi Wu;Bo Lu;Li Qiu;Yuanyuan Li

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近年来,为应对气候变化及相应的环境问题,中国出台了多项环境法规。但由于经济发展和产业结构的不平衡,中国不同地区的环境法规执行力度存在差异,导致污染密集型产业的区域转移。为研究碳排放转移的地区差异,本文采用倾向得分匹配-差异法(以下简称“PSM-DID”)评估碳交易试点政策与污染密集型产业转移的作用机制。使用中国 30 个省份的面板数据来检验“污染天堂假说”的有效性,涵盖 2010 年至 2018 年期间。实证结果表明,在既定环境规制约束下,试点政策在一定程度上促进了污染密集型产业转移,验证了“污染避难所假说”;试点政策实施后,试点地区第二产业和能源产业比重有所下降;相反,试点省市的技术水平和经济发展水平进一步提高。
In recent years, China had released various environmental regulations in order to respond climate change and corresponding environmental issues. However, due to imbalanced economic development and industrial structure, different Chinese regions had different enforcement levels on environmental regulations, which led to the regional transfer of pollution-intensive industries. To study the regional disparities on carbon emission transfer, this paper used the propensity score matching-difference in differences method (hereinafter abbreviated as "PSM-DID") to evaluate the mechanism between carbon trading pilot policies and the transfer of pollution-intensive industries. Panel data on 30 Chinese provinces were used to test the validity of the "pollution haven hypothesis," covering the period of 2010-2018. The empirical results showed that under the constraints of established environmental regulation, the pilot policy promoted the transfer of pollution-intensive industries to a certain extent and verified the "pollution haven hypothesis"; the proportion of the secondary sector and energy industry in the pilot areas had been reduced after the pilot policy; on the contrary, the technical level and the economic development level of the pilot provinces and cities had been further improved.
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