Adjusting sowing date and cultivar shift improve maize adaption to climate change in China
Adjusting sowing date and cultivar shift improve maize adaption to climate change in China
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调整播期和品种转变可提高中国玉米对气候变化的适应能力
DOI：
10.1007/s11027-019-09861-w
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发表时间：
2019-04
影响因子：
4
通讯作者：
Guoquan Lu
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Zunfu Lv;Feifei Li;Guoquan Lu
本研究调查了气候变化对中国春、夏玉米产量的影响，并对克服气候变化对中国玉米生产负面影响的几种适应措施进行了评价。结果表明，受气候变化的影响，未来玉米灌浆期将缩短6-15 d。因此，与1976-2005年相比，2010-2099年玉米潜在产量将下降2- 32%，玉米潜在产量将下降0-24%。为应对气候变化，应采取适应措施克服其预计的影响。采用新品种，同时保持相同的开花前和开花后的时间在未来将有助于提高潜在产量的50-61%，在三个时间片（2030年，2050年，2070年），是一个更好的选择，在未来的高产。在我国夏玉米生产中，选择花后持续期与目前相同的品种比选择花前持续期相同的品种更好。调整播期是延长玉米花后期、进一步提高产量的重要途径。如果采用现行玉米品种，推迟播种期可提高玉米潜在产量2- 25%。如果未来的玉米品种，保持生长期，即使温暖的温度加速物候期的发展，推迟播种日期将提高玉米产量的潜力0- 8.9%。对播种与品种的互作效应进行了量化。根据本研究的结果，未来玉米品种应保持生育期，推迟播种期仍能提高全球玉米的潜在产量。两项区域气候变化适应战略可以抵消全球玉米产量可能减少的影响，从而为农民和决策者提供明确的指导。
This study investigates the impact of climate change on spring and summer maize (Zea mays) yield and evaluates several adaptation measures to overcome the negative impact of climate change on maize production in China. The results showed that the grain-filling duration of maize would be shortened 6–15 days in the future as a result of climate change. Thus, potential maize yield would decrease by 2–32%, and rainfed maize yield would decrease by 0–24% during 2010–2099 relative to 1976–2005. In response to climate change, adaptive measures should be taken to overcome its projected impact. The adoption of new cultivars while maintaining the same pre-flowering and post-flowering duration in the future as in the present would help to improve potential maize yield by 50–61% in three time slices (2030s, 2050s, and 2070s) and would be a better choice for high yields in the future. The cultivars that would maintain the same post-flowering duration in the future as in the present would be a better choice than the cultivars that would maintain the pre-flowing periods for summer maize in China. Adjusting sowing dates would be another important way to extend post-flowering periods and further improve maize yield. If the maize cultivar currently used was adopted, delaying the sowing date would improve the potential maize yield by 2–25%. If future maize cultivars that maintained the growing period even as warmer temperatures accelerate phenological development were adopted, delaying the sowing date would improve the potential maize yield by 0–8.9%. The interactive effect of sowing and cultivars was quantified. Based on the findings of this study, future maize cultivars maintaining the growing period were adopted, and delaying the sowing date could still improve potential maize yield worldwide. Two regional adaptation strategies to climate change could offset the potential reduction of maize production worldwide, which would provide farmers and policy-makers with explicit guidance.
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影响因子：
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