Sanction risk perceptions, coherence, and deterrence *
Sanction risk perceptions, coherence, and deterrence
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制裁风险认知、一致性和威慑*
DOI：
10.1111/1745-9125.12266
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发表时间：
2021
期刊：
影响因子：
5.8
通讯作者：
Greg Pogarsky
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Tim Barnum;D. Nagin;Greg Pogarsky
环境犯罪学、治安和相关文献的研究一致发现，与逮捕风险相关的客观条件会影响犯罪。这种关系的机制没有明确测试，而是假设，知觉威慑。在本分析中，我们明确研究了这种机制。然而，这个测试并不简单，因为一些研究表明，风险感知容易受到各种认知偏见和框架效应的影响。因此，我们提出了一个框架的制裁风险感知，结合个人和上下文的决定因素。具体来说，我们调查是否上下文因素实质上影响风险的看法，并反过来打算在考虑到个人特定的决定因素的影响后，冒犯。我们的数据来自一项关于超速的实验性调查（N = 1，919）。受访者从驾驶员的角度观看了一辆轿车在高速公路上超速的视频，并提供了对制裁风险、安全认知和行为意图的估计。尽管受访者对超速的制裁风险和安全认知差异很大，但它们仍然基于实验视频的客观条件。反过来，公民对恐惧风险的看法与观看相同视频后从州警那里得出的风险估计是相当的。结果表明，威慑和安全考虑是帮助形成违法意图的重要因素。
Research from environmental criminology, policing, and related literatures consistently finds that objective conditions related to risk of apprehension affect crime. The mechanism underlying this relationship is not explicitly tested; instead, perceptual deterrence is assumed. In this analysis we explicitly investigate that mechanism. This test is not straightforward, however, as some research shows that risk perceptions are susceptible to various cognitive biases and framing effects. Thus, we advance a framework of sanction risk perception that combines individual and contextual determinants. Specifically, we investigate whether contextual factors materially influence risk perceptions and in turn intentions to offend after accounting for the influence of individual‐specific determinants. Our data come from an experimental survey on speeding (N = 1,919). Respondents viewed videos from the driver's perspective of a sedan speeding on a highway and provided estimates of sanction risk, safety perceptions, and behavioral intentions. Although sanction risk and safety perceptions for speeding varied widely across respondents, they remained grounded in the objective conditions of the experimental videos. In turn, citizen perceptions of apprehension risk were comparable with risk estimates elicited from state troopers after viewing the same videos. The results suggest deterrence and safety considerations are important contributing factors that help shape intentions to transgress.
个体特征是否可以解释严重青少年犯罪者制裁风险更新的差异？
影响因子：
2.5
作者：
Thomas,KyleJ;Loughran,ThomasA;Piquero,AlexR
通讯作者：
Piquero,AlexR